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DEWAN DISPATCHES: Calling the bluff of the defection poker game

by: Azmi Anshar
DEWAN RAKYAT, May 7, 2008

The Malay word ‘lompat’ is a sticky proposition in the lexicon of Malaysian politics. Strictly translated, it means “jump” but in the political realm, it means “defection”, an act both despised and embraced, depending on whether you are the one embracing deserters from a rival party or you are the party despising the desertion by the busloads.

Then there’s the stickier defection of sitting elected representatives from one party to another, a practice that is akin to a tug-of-war between warring political organisations. The indignant losing party will assume the moral high ground by claiming that the defecting MPs, or assemblymen:
:: cannot defect because they were elected on the ticket of their previous party;
:: have betrayed the trust of people who voted them in;
:: have no right to defect because they owe their allegiances to their sponsoring party

Would-be defectors can relax for now: plans to enact anti-hopping laws were killed in 1992 after the High Court declared them as unconstitutional and going against the freedom of association clause enshrined in the Federal Constitution. But the ruling has not stopped fresh plans for another round of anti-hopping law activism though the ethical dilemma is well understood by defectors.

But political parties on the receiving end had pushed hard for anti-hopping laws. Look to Parti Bersatu Sabah when they were being deserted by their assemblymen or to Pas in Kelantan when the balance of power hung precariously against their favour prior to the March 8 polls. More recently, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Zaid Ibrahim sounded the idea of an anti-hopping law to pre-empt defections by a probable 34 Sabah Barisan Nasional MPs, as claimed by PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Even ex-Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad cautioned the BN government to seriously heed Anwar’s threat.

If Anwar’s claim materialises, it would mean the overnight collapse of the BN Government, empowering the fledgling Pakatan Rakyat coalition to form a new Federal government. It’s heady stuff in Malaysian politics, especially if you’ve never experienced the tantalising likelihood of an alternative government.

Since the threat of defection is deemed plausible, Datuk Anifah Aman (BN-Kimanis) was compelled to set aside a generous portion of his debate on the royal address at the Dewan Rakyat today on Anwar’s disruption to the balance of power in the Dewan Rakyat, but with eloquent arguments that dangled the pros and cons of defecting. In his calm, baritone voice espousing reason and practical wisdom, the 54-year-old enunciated the logic of defection: “There is no harm in Sabah BN MPs defecting to Pakatan Rakyat. The people of Sabah have had enough of being treated contemptuously like stepchildren.”

Sensing a trump card, Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (BN-Bagan Datok), lobbed this metaphor to Anifah: why would you want to relegate yourself to living in a terrace house if you reside inside a swanky bungalow?

To the cheers of his Sabah BN colleagues, who formed a tag team to support of his “Sabah-had-been-neglected-for-47-years” victimology, and a considerable amount of Pakatan Raykat MPs, Anifah gave this rejoinder: "If there is no more space in the bungalow, what is the harm in them moving to a smaller house?” In a later rejoinder, he said to more cheers: "What is the use of additional rooms in the bungalow if we are forced to sleep in the toilet?"

And yet: "I am not saying I am crossing over,” Anifah quickly clarified. “Crossing over is not a serious matter. More serious are the millions of voters in five states in Peninsula Malaysia who crossed-over to the Opposition. Even if we speak harshly it does not mean we are defecting. The important thing now is for Sabah people not to jump like Peninsular Malaysians in five states.”

And still: “I am against any anti-hopping law. That would be like a police state. What is the point of persisting with leaders who have deviated? Do we stick with them? What good is a leader if the people are no longer with them?"

Anifah’s articulation of the Sabah “defect-or-not-to-defect” scenario is understandable: he stunned BN leaders by rejecting his appointment as a deputy minister. That was the first salvo. The second salvo came when Anwar made several visits to Kota Kinabalu and later declared 34 BN MPs were ready to join Pakatan Rakyat. Now comes the third salvo: Anifah’s rather paradoxical rationalisation of why it’s all right to defect and yet his assurance that he and his Sabah colleagues are not defecting to Pakatan Rakyat.

Here’s a reality check: like any poker game, you can win with a limp deck if you can bluff the other side into thinking that you have a flush when all you've got is a weak pair. It’s how you play the game or how good is your “poker face”.

Given what Dr Mahathir pronounced around the same time Anifah upped the defection ante considerably, the Kiwanis MP is playing perhaps the ultimate poker game: trying to win concessions for Sabah in the form of better Cabinet representation and procuring radical increase in development and infrastructure projects languishing in many Malaysian plans against the real threat of defections from Sabah BN MPs that will definitely crush BN’s decades-old hegemony.

But Anifah would also realise that playing the defection stakes as a form of political leverage against the BN has its downside: what if BN decides to call the Sabahan’s bluff and ignores the defection threat, but is floored by 34 MPs jumping ship while the whole political landscape metamorphosises?

Here may be the new scenario: Sabah can rejoice in forcing a new Pakatan Rakyat Federal government and with that, all the concessions they so desire…or enter the political dark ages as there is no guarantee that the PR government can be accommodating and the 34 MPs who defected get booted out in the next general election.

Either way, the Sabah MP may discover that in playing this profound poker game, Sabah is still the pawn in the great political chess game between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat where it may not be a zero-sum game but losing still sucks. And this is what Anifah may have considered when he decided to raise the defection ante at the Dewan Rakyat today.