ANALYSTS believe that a series of missteps by Perikatan Nasional (PN), coupled with Pakatan Harapan's (PH) discipline in not deviating from its strategy, ultimately led to the unity government coalition retaining the Kuala Kubu Baharu state seat in the by-election.
PN had entered the by-election with several factors in its favour, such as capitalising on the cost of living issue, MCA's decision to not participate in the PH-Barisan Nasional (BN) campaign, as well as PH fielding a DAP candidate regarded as an "outsider".
PH also had to deal with discontent sown among Indian voters, who make up 18 per cent of the voters, by new Indian-based Malaysian Indian People's Party (MIPP).
Setting a target of capturing Malay voters and capitalising on concerns of the people on the rising cost of living, PN launched its "4-0" mission for the by-election to complete the opposition's "missing pieces" in the Hulu Selangor parliamentary constituency.
With the exception of Kuala Kubu Baharu, the other two state seats, namely Batang Kali and Hulu Bernam, as well as the Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat are held by PN elected representatives.
PN's campaign, however, got off to a disastrous start two days before nomination after the coalition announced acting Hulu Selangor Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) division chief Khairul Azhari Saut as its candidate.
When questions over Khairul Azhari's academic credentials surfaced, Pas information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari appeared to give PH an "open shot at goal" when he, in turn, challenged DAP candidate Pang Sock Tao to reveal her Ujian Pencapaian Sekolah Rendah (UPSR) and Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia (SPM) exam results.
Pang subsequently shared her sterling results on social media, comprising four A+, three As and three A- for her SPM and straight As for her UPSR.
PN's campaign took a turn for the worse when Ahmad Fadhli, in an apology on social media to Pang over the issue, appeared to be dismissive of Pang being a vernacular school graduate.
This did not have the desired effect, with various quarters lambasting the Pas man over his remarks.
A top PN leader told the NST that the move was a regrettable error in judgment.
"It was a slip of the tongue or in this case, a slip of the finger," said the senior leader on the social media posting.
The faux pas subsequently saw Khairul Azhari having minimal contact with the media, triggering rumours of a gag order issued by the PN leadership, which were refuted by the by-election's PN election director, Datuk Seri Azmin Ali.
Professor James Chin, a political analyst from the University of Tasmania's Asia Institute, said PN's campaign never recovered from its disastrous start. Fadhli's jibe at vernacular schools, he added, served only to rally support for Pang from the Chinese voters.
Data from DAP showed that 63.9 per cent of the total Chinese voters turned out during polling day.
"They (the Chinese voters) saw it as an attack on their culture and education.
"There was also significant sympathy votes, especially among the core supporters of the late assemblyman Lee Kee Hiong, who wanted her legacy to be continued.
"Bersatu mounted a lame campaign as the party appeared to be 'hiding' their candidate. There were many questions surrounding his academic background and other issues. All this issues worked in PH's favour," he said.
Chin also noted that PN component Pas was late to the game during the campaigning period.
"They (Pas) really did not campaign until the end of the second week," he said.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan labelled PN's campaign as "very rhetoric".
"The strategies such as questioning Pang's education background and by linking her to (DAP Chief Whip in Parliament) Nga Kor Ming in their attempt to win the support of Malay voters, didn't work.
"It backfired as there was an increase of between three and four per cent in the turnout among Chinese voters in this by-election compared with the state election last year.
He also noted that the campaign launched by former DAP leader Dr P Ramasamy for Indian voters to boycott the by-election also didn't work in PN's favour.
"This was reflected in the increase in Indian voters who supported Pang in the by-election."
He said the results also showed that the Malay voters, especially Umno supporters, have begun to accept the political cooperation between Umno and DAP.
"PH's ability to secure a very respectable majority was because Umno voters voted not only for a DAP candidate, but also someone who is closely linked to Nga, which is very rare. We cannot disregard the role played by Umno in helping DAP retain the seat."
Selangor PH chairman Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari said the results showed that the Malays are now more confident with the unity government.
"We also won three ballot boxes, namely in Kerling, Sungai Air Jernih and Pertak, which we lost in the previous elections.
"Two of these ballot boxes — Sungai Air Jernih and Pertak — are areas with a majority of Malay and Bumiputera population."
DAP retained the state seat after Pas won with a majority of 3,869 votes. Pang polled 14,000 votes to defeat three other contenders in the by-election.