Part 2 - 2025: Malaysia's role in a fractured world amidst geopolitical shifts,
The Middle East: Between ceasefire and chaos
Welcome to the Middle East in 2025—a region where every ceasefire feels temporary, every alliance is transactional, and every handshake comes with crossed fingers behind someone's back. Gaza remains the burning core of this geopolitical puzzle, but the ripples of its flames extend far beyond. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and Israel are recalibrating their regional ambitions, while external actors like the US, Russia, and China hover above, each trying to tilt the chessboard to their advantage.
The war in Gaza hasn't just redrawn lines on a map—it's blurred them. Old alliances have frayed, and new alignments feel more tactical than strategic. In this fragile mosaic, Donald Trump, ever the dealmaker, will likely push for an "Abraham Accords 2.0"—a" grand bargain to bring Saudi Arabia into normalisation with Israel.
On paper, it looks like a geopolitical masterstroke: Saudi-Israeli ties would redraw regional security lines, isolate Iran further, and give Trump a foreign policy trophy to parade in Washington.
But scratch beneath the surface, and the challenges become clear. A Trump-brokered ceasefire in Gaza might make for excellent headlines, but without addressing the deep-rooted despair of the Palestinians and the intractable security concerns of Israel, it's a Band-Aid on a bullet wound.
Iran, meanwhile, isn't sitting idle. Tehran has perfected the art of waging asymmetric warfare through proxies across the region, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen. Any Saudi-Israeli normalisation will likely provoke Iranian escalation—cyberattacks, drone strikes, or further destabilisation of fragile neighbours.
Turkey under Erdoğan remains the regional wild card. Balancing NATO membership, cordial ties with Russia, and regional leadership ambitions, Erdoğan has played a diplomatic high-wire act for years. But Ankara's influence in Gaza, its complex relationship with Israel, and its aspirations for a leadership role in the The Muslim world will force it to make tough choices in 2025.
What does all this add up to? A Middle East where the surface might seem calmer —thanks to superficial ceasefires and handshakes at summits—but the undercurrents remain dangerously turbulent. It's less a region moving towards sustainable peace and more one trying to avoid outright catastrophe.
Artificial Intelligence: The Geopolitical Wild Card
In 2024, AI made headlines for its capabilities—language models, generative art, and predictive analytics. In 2025, the focus will shift to control: Who writes the rules? Who owns the algorithms? And who gets to decide how AI shapes our lives?
AI isn't just a technology; it's an accelerant. It will accelerate economic inequality. Turbocharge military strategies and fundamentally alter how governments monitor and control populations.
Countries like the US, China, and the EU are locked in a race—not just to innovate, but to regulate. Whoever sets the rules for AI governance won't just shape technology—they'll shape geopolitics for the next century.
How This Affects Malaysia: Navigating the Vortex in Southeast Asia
In a world where every geopolitical tremor sends ripples across borders, Malaysia finds itself straddling multiple fault lines. As Chair of ASEAN in 2025, Malaysia doesn't just inherit a ceremonial gavel—it inherits the responsibility of steering Southeast Asia through some of the most turbulent geopolitical waters in recent memory.
First, there's the US-China rivalry. Trump's return to the White House in 2025 and his signature "tariff diplomacy" could severely disrupt global supply chains.
Malaysia, deeply integrated into these networks—especially in sectors like electronics, semiconductors, and palm oil—risks becoming collateral damage in this economic brinkmanship. Yet, Malaysia also stands to benefit. As multinational Corporations look to diversify supply chains away from China; Malaysia could position itself as a stable, neutral alternative. But this will require deft diplomacy.
economic agility, and a commitment to strengthening domestic infrastructure.
Then there's China's economic slowdown—a ticking time bomb for Malaysia's export-driven economy. As China grapples with a debt-laden property sector, faltering consumer confidence, and internal socio-economic pressures, its appetite for Malaysian commodities, electronics, and raw materials might shrink. Malaysia must look beyond China to hedge against this slowdown—deepening intra-ASEAN trade, strengthening partnerships with India and the Middle East, and capitalising on its strategic location along vital maritime trade routes.
This brings us to BRICS. Malaysia has been observing the bloc's rise with caution. optimism. As BRICS expands, exploring alternatives to the dollar-dominated financial system and increasing trade within its member states, Malaysia may see an opportunity to reduce its dependency on Western financial systems and markets. But aligning more closely with BRICS isn't without risks—it could strain Malaysia's ties with Western allies and expose it to the economic turbulence within BRICS member states, particularly Russia and South Africa.
Finally, there's Artificial Intelligence—the ultimate geopolitical wild card. AI isn't just a technological breakthrough; it's a geopolitical weapon, an economic accelerator,
and a societal disruptor all rolled into one. Malaysia faces a choice: remain a passive adopter of AI technologies built and governed by others, or become an active shaper of regional AI policies and frameworks. ASEAN, under Malaysia's chairmanship, could emerge as a vital bloc advocating for ethical AI governance, ensuring that smaller nations don't become collateral damage in the AI arms race between the US and China.
But AI isn't just about regulations—it's also about capability. Malaysia must invest in AI research, upskill its workforce, and integrate AI-driven technologies across key sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, and education.
In 2025, Malaysia isn't just hosting ASEAN meetings—it's hosting history. How Malaysia manages the US-China rivalry, responds to China's economic slowdown, leverages BRICS opportunities, and navigates the AI revolution will determine not just its future, but ASEAN's collective trajectory.
2025 isn't just another year for Malaysia—it's a hinge moment. The tectonic plates are shifting, the Jenga tower is swaying, and every move matters.
As I often say, the future isn't something we predict—it's something we build. And Malaysia has a chance to build a future where diplomacy, technology, and resilience converge to create stability amid global chaos.
Fasten your seatbelts. The ride isn't just turbulent—it's defining.
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*Economist Samirul Ariff Othman is an adjunct lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Petronas, international relations analyst and a senior consultant with Global Asia Consulting. The views in this OpEd piece are entirely his own.