Kerala will be among a handful of states in India heading to the polls in the second quarter of this year.
Over the years, since the 1980s, Kerala has seen its government alternate each term between the Indian National Congress (Congress)-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) parties each time polls are held in the state with the highest literacy rate in India.
This time, the left-wing LDF is looking to buck the trend by retaining power for a second term. It is hopeful that its positive outcome in the local authority polls held in December last year will see it retain the state government.
The third-tier polls in Kerala are seen as a bellwether for the state assembly election scheduled to be held in the second quarter of this year. Indian publication Frontline said there was no denying what the results of the local body elections indicate.
The English language magazine said the people had rewarded the LDF for the positive impact it has had on everyday lives in spite of the unprecedented challenges the State had to face during its tenure, including two devastating floods and the economic crisis that followed, the spread of the Nipah virus and then the Covid-19 pandemic.
"What makes the LDF victory very sweet (in the third-tier polls) is that it came about despite the negative focus placed on its government's functioning and the targeting of its popular policy initiatives, with a haze of allegations of corruption and nepotism by the opposition parties and a section of the media," it said.
The LDF government, led by Pinarayi Vijayan, is also touted to have accomplished a number of tasks as well as people's needs in the state since 2016. These include the introduction of an annual progress report, various welfare programmes for homeless, landless, transgenders, health and education.
The left-wing parties' rival for the Kerala people's electoral affection is UDF, which holds 42 state seats in the unicameral assembly. The eight-party UDF pact is hoping to ride on its Lok Sabha election (Parliament) accomplishment in 2019, which saw it make a near complete sweep in 19 out of 20 parliamentary constituencies from the state known for its backwaters.
Despite this optimism, the UDF and the Congress are facing a crisis of confidence for the state polls after doing poorly in the local authority polls, said The Times of India . The English daily says that to revive its flagging confidence, the Congress, as one of the measures, has turned to former three-term Kerala chief minister and veteran political warhorse A.K. Anthony to lead its charge in the state polls.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which only has one seat in the state assembly, is nevertheless pushing hard into the state. This by hoping to garner the Hindu community vote bank, which is unhappy with the LDF government's handling of the Sabarimala Temple issue, where women of all age groups are allowed to enter it following a Supreme Court ruling.
The BJP has dipped into this dissatisfaction and has even seen it win the Pandalam local authority government, where the revered Hindu temple is located, in the third-tier polls. In addition, the saffron party is hopeful that the LDF-UDF clash will see it become a beneficiary of additional seats in the state assembly as well as expand its influence in the state with a 54 per cent Hindu population.
However, it is not likely to be an easy outing for the BJP in Kerala, what more with the state's minorities comprising Muslims and Christians steadfastly against it and a disunited state party unit. The Deccan Chronicle says that given the LDF's four per cent lead in the 2016 election, the UDF needs to work really hard if it aims to stage a comeback.
"We must also watch BJP's moves in the state. It is important to note BJP polled 14.6 per cent votes in the state in the 2016 Assembly elections, when it opened its account in Kerala. It could upset the calculation of established political formations," it said. An opinion poll by Lok Poll on Jan 6 projects the LDF to retain the state government but paints a tight contest.
It forecasts that the LDF may see reduced numbers in the state assembly by capturing only between 73 and 78 seats in the upcoming polls, compared with the 91 seats it garnered in 2016.
The poll also forecasted that the UDF will be able to garner between 62 and 67 seats, up from its 47 seats it snared in the 2016 polls and NDA possibly only managing to win a sole seat as it did in 2016.
The writer is NST news editor
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the New Straits Times