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Provoking China a recipe for disaster

THERE are three reasons why China is furious with the US' recent policies on Taiwan in the last three months.

First, US' ambivalent policy, supplanting its strategic ambiguity with clarity, that justifies military action against China's use of force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.

President Joe Biden's statement in Tokyo, not long ago, that US would use force if China were to invade Taiwan, its estranged province, has put China on the defensive.

Washington's support for democracy in Taiwan goes against the very principle of the One China policy that the US has endorsed since 1979. Under the One China Policy, Taiwan is an alienable part of China.

Second, US' decision to designate Taiwan as a non-Nato ally since June this year. Whilst still not clear what a major North Atlantic Treaty Organisation ally entails, it can mean many things.

This designation is contained in the Taiwan Policy Act 2022 which was passed by the US senate in June 2022, two months before the US' speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi made a controversial night landing at a military base in Taipei early this month.

Is the US trying to apply the same collective self-defence principle adopted by Nato members to Taiwan?

Does the US expect some Nato countries to come to Taiwan's aid in the event of an attack or special military operation (to use Vladimir Putin's language) against Taiwan?

Does the US plan to do the unthinkable like inviting Taiwan to join Nato or start another Nato-styled military organisation in the Indo Pacific?

In 1955, the US set up the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) to provide a collective defence against the spread of  global communism in Asia. It failed to stop the communists' takeover of Indo-China.

By the way, all Nato members are independent sovereign states. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, in which the signatory members undertake to uphold is that "an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all".

Washington has, by virtue of this Act, conferred on Taiwan certain attributes usually reserved for a sovereign or independent state.

The Act provides a range of actions that Washington plans to undertake to deter China from invading or taking hostile actions against Taiwan.

Foremost is the bipartisan commitment to continue providing weapons to Taiwan and to support Taiwan's participation in international organisations and to allow Taiwan to fly its own flag as a symbol of its sovereignty.

The Act has set aside a special fund amounting to US$4.5 billion over four years in security assistance to Taiwan to "deter further PRC aggression against Taiwan".

To me, this new US policy is tantamount to a declaration of war against China which has called for peaceful reunification with Taiwan.

It is too early to speculate how the US will respond to China's military exercises off Taiwan which followed the most recent unannounced visit by six lawmakers to Taiwan.

The Act that spells out actions to be taken by the US administration to engage with the "democratic Government of Taiwan as the legitimate representative of the People of Taiwan" will not go down well in Beijing that views the policy as an outright intervention in China's domestic policy.

The Act also supports Taiwan's inclusion in the Indo Pacific Economic Framework and supporting the inclusion of Taiwan in international organisations.

The Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 should be read together with the CHIPS and Science Bill that was passed by the US Senate on July 28, 2022, four days before Pelosi arrived in Taipei.

This Bill provides financial aid and subsidies worth US$280 billion mostly to support investment in the US semiconductor industry, which is facing stiff competition from China. The Bill would provide "US$52 billion in subsidies and additional tax credits" to companies that manufacture chips in the US, according to The New York Times.

Another US$200 billion is being allocated for scientific research, especially in artificial intelligence and other novel technologies.

This Bill is important to Taiwan which makes 65 per cent of the world's semiconductors and almost 90 per cent of the advanced chips. By comparison, China produces a little over 5 per cent while the US produces approximately 10 per cent, according to market analysts. South Korea, Japan, and the Netherlands are the other sources of the product, which is at the heart of many electronic devices and machinery.

The CHIPS Bill is intended to lure the semiconductor companies in Taiwan to migrate and invest in US foundries. Apparently, Pelosi went to Taiwan to provide personal assurance to the chips foundries to relocate their business to the US and benefit from the large financial outlay that the Congress has approved.

According to some reports, the scientists and engineers in Taiwan prefer to stay at home and work in China just across the straits.

During her brief stay in Taipei, Pelosi met with the Chief Operating of officer of the Taiwan SemiConductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the largest Semiconductor Manufacturer in the world. It was rumoured that Pelosi's family, led by her son who was in Taipei with her, has invested heavily in computer chips business.

Third, Washington is consciously provoking China to start a war. Writing in the National Interest, Paul Heer, summarises the US' fear of its own internal vulnerabilities and decline as a pretext to take on China with the tendency to overstate the nature and scope of the challenge.

US secretary of State Antony Blinken's prescription for a China policy that requires the US to be "competitive where it should be, collaborative where it can be, and adversarial where it must be" is a recipe for foreign policy disaster.

It is too little too late now to contain China and roll back its global political influence and economic footprint.


The writer is a keen student of geopolitics

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the New Straits Times

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