On the evening of Jan 15, 2025, there were celebrations on the streets of Gaza. After over a year of fighting and destruction, they could finally see a glimmer of hope — a moment of respite from the months of Israeli aggression, loss, and ruin.
The world also felt relieved that a ceasefire was now finally becoming a reality after countless attempts to broker one.
Journalists, who have been at the frontline of the conflict, took off their helmets on live television when the ceasefire was announced. In their eyes, were gratitude, but also sadness for the many journalists who lost their lives in the conflict that has raged Gaza since Oct 7, 2023.
The terms indicate a much-needed interval. The ceasefire should hold for 42 days to allow for Israel to withdraw until the fringes of Gaza, Hamas to release Israeli hostages, for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons to be freed and to introduce a period of "sustainable calm".
After the 42 days, the third phase will be implemented, which should see the start of Gaza's reconstruction, and the reopening of more normal border crossings.
Brokered in Doha, Qatar, the ceasefire was brought by the United States, Egyptian and Qatari negotiators, where details of Israeli troop withdrawal and hostage-prisoner exchanges were hashed out.
Many attempts to bring Israel and Hamas to an agreement were unsuccessful, due to failure to agree on terms.
The agreement of Jan 15 shows Israel and Hamas' ability to negotiate and come together, which indicates an openness to possible future negotiations.
Divided over three phases, there are concerns over whether terms will be met, and whether the ceasefire will hold.
We are certainly in a delicate position where both sides will be watching the other to ensure that they fulfil their side of the bargain.
Palestinian Authority politicians on the West Bank have showed optimism for the deal and Qatar, Egypt and the US will be putting a monitoring mechanism in place to ensure that Hamas and Israel fulfil their parts.
This ceasefire is certainly something to celebrate, but it is a sombre reminder of what has been lost: the lives, homes, and dignity of the people of Gaza, its civilians, health workers, and journalists.
It is also a brief moment of relief in a deeper, wider war. While this ceasefire may bring this conflict to an end, it still does not bring any conclusion to the overall Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The West Bank, for instance, continues to be vulnerable to illegal Israeli annexation, and Palestinians will continue to live under occupation. As such, peace continues to be a pursuit, and this ceasefire is merely the beginning.
But the ceasefire has exposed several geopolitical shifts. Firstly, is the role played by Qatar.
Showing the country's prime position in the negotiations, it was Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani who announced the ceasefire and laid out the terms.
Indeed, Qatar has been playing a significant role since this conflict began. Close to Hamas and Iran but also with calm relations with the West, Doha has found itself in a unique bargaining and negotiating position.
This singles it out from its other Arab Gulf neighbours, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and reveals its power, influence and standing.
Since the early 2010s, Qatar has had unstable relations with its Arab neighbours, stemming from suspicions of Qatar's soft power status and Doha's closeness to Iran.
While relations have improved in recent years, Qatar's role in brokering the ceasefire reveals its visible and influential position in the region. It will not be surprising if Qatar continues to play this role in the future, between the West, Israel, Iran and Palestine.
Secondly, is the timing of the ceasefire. Close to the inauguration of Donald Trump's second presidency, there is an awareness of urgency to have a ceasefire in place before the Republican president comes to power.
Historically, the Republicans have had an isolationist approach to foreign policy but Trump himself however has shown an erratic approach to international relations.
In the last weeks, he has spoken openly about his plans to annex Canada and acquire Denmark's autonomous region of Greenland.
His pro-Israel stance saw the controversial move of the US embassy to Jerusalem during his first presidency.
There thus must have been a realisation, especially on the part of the Palestinians, that any kind of Israel-Hamas agreement needed to be done before Trump returns to the White House.
Both he and current President Joe Biden have both taken credit for the brokering of the deal, but Trump will certainly see this as a major initial score of his government.
Thirdly, is Iran's precarious regional position. Since the conflict erupted, Iran had also been involved in the war through its regional allies, Hamas, Hizbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Israel has always regarded Iran as a key threat and had been drumming up support amongst Western governments against the Islamic Republic in the last year.
The tensions escalated when Israel and Iran both launched missiles at each other, in April and October last year.
But the ceasefire may see a reduction of tensions, bringing much needed de-escalation on both sides. However, with a nuclear deal still absent between Iran and the West, the threat of Iran may always be used to revive tensions and conflict in the region.
Fourthly, Malaysia may continue to play a significant role in the Middle East. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has announced a commitment in the reconstruction plan of Gaza, in a joint effort with Japan.
He has also made international headlines with a strong alignment with Hamas and on his criticism against the Israeli-led genocide.
During his official visit to the United Kingdom in January 2025, he reiterated his stand to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
If the ceasefire goes as planned, this will be a confirmation of Malaysia's position and the implementation of the third phase, which will see Malaysia play a significant role in the rebuilding scheme of Gaza.
The ceasefire will bring some sense of sanity to a region bogged down by years, decades of conflict and tensions. But the next weeks will be crucial to see its durability.
Just a day after the ceasefire was announced, the Israeli cabinet has delayed the vote on the agreement.
As we enter this new stage on shaky ground, there is a keen sense that all the parties of the ceasefire have a lot at stake. While it remains to be seen how the ceasefire will hold, we can already see what changes it portends.
The writer is a researcher specialising in Iran and the Middle East