NO country has vanquished Covid-19. Until then, the pandemic needs to be managed by data, not dates.
Britain, recklessly, is opting for dates. Come July 19, it will lift all restrictions, leaving health and social protocols to individual choice. Wearing masks and social distancing, made possible by law, are set to disappear.
British government thinking is that human behaviour is best controlled by individuals. May be true under normal circumstances, but personal choice during the pandemic?
Britain under Prime Minister Boris Johnson is taking a very high risk of sending Covid-19 cases north. Medical opinion is also urging caution.
England's chief medical officer Chris Whitty, when asked by the media, said he will wear a mask in three situations. One, in a crowded situation indoors. Two, when required to by an authority. Three, when someone else is uncomfortable with him not wearing one.
We can safely say not all Britons will think like Whitty. Ditto for Malaysians, too. The official line from 10 Downing Street is that the British must learn to live with Covid-19 like they do with the seasonal influenza.
How very mistaken. More on this later. For Malaysia, especially those who are in Putrajaya managing the pandemic, Britain's all-or-nothing approach is a case of what not to do.
Is it right to say that living with Covid-19 is like living with the flu? The blunt answer is no. Covid-19 and influenza do share some similarities. They are contagious and spread through droplets and contaminated surfaces.
Symptoms too may be alike. Those who know will stop seeing similarities beyond these. For one, Covid-19 is more lethal.
An analysis done by The Guardian, the British daily, puts the R value for the seasonal flu — the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to — averages about 1.28. Or put differently, four persons infected by the flu might pass the virus to five more.
SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, spreads a lot faster. Consider the Delta variant, which was first detected in India and is now surging around the world. Its R value is estimated by the same analysis to be seven, meaning a single case of the Delta variant might infect seven others. True, vaccination will drive the R value down. But how low is anybody's guess as not much is known about the variant.
Covid-19 has killed more people than the seasonal flu. In England, the flu is said to have killed 44,505 people in three seasons from 2015-2016 and from 2018-2019. Covid-19 killed the same number of people there in just the first nine weeks of this year.
True, vaccination does drive down the number of people being hospitalised, but it does not prevent transmission. As Delta becomes Lambda or whatever name a new variant acquires, more and more people, especially the elderly, will fall victim to Covid-19.
Delta is a superspreader and superkiller. Lambda may be worse. Boris and his newly-installed Health Secretary Sajid Javid will do well to rethink the British government's decision to lift all restrictions on July 19.
Both seem to be bothered by the idea "if it is not now when?" Mr prime minister, that is not the right question. As the British Medical Association says, decisions must be based on data, not dates.
By now we should know that Covid-19 doesn't have an expiry date. We have.