Leader

NST Leader: Climate catastrophe

The United Nations Climate Conference (COP26) held in November in Glasgow, Scotland, was a success, or so we were told.

Never mind if many countries headed there with nary a plan to keep the world no warmer than 1.5°C. Never mind, too, we are experiencing more extreme weather events than we were used to. India and Pakistan alone offer two stark examples of the state of the world's climate.

But we will take the word of Alok Sharma, the president of COP26 and a cabinet minister in the United Kingdom. Writing in The Guardian on Nov 23, he had this to say about the climate event's achievement: "We can credibly say that we kept the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in reach." But the UN's World Meteorological Organisation's (WMO) "State of the Global Climate in 2021" tells a different story.

To be blunt, the WMO is asking us to be ready for a climate catastrophe. Unless, yes, unless all 198 nations implement their net-zero carbon pledges on time and in full. But on time and in full are a challenge.

One reason is the war in Ukraine, a convenient cover for many countries to keep their fossil fuels burning. The Guardian has unearthed some 200 such projects under development, which are expected to add a billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, or 18 years of emissions, sinking COP26's hope of keeping the world no warmer than 1.5°C.

This is unsurprising given that oil prices are at an all-time high. As this Leader was going to press, Brent was trading at US$112 a barrel. A bonanza too tempting for oil companies used to low-for-long prices. This isn't just a coal rush in China and India, but a hydrocarbon rush everywhere.

Calling such hydrocarbon rush "carbon bombs", another report by the British daily on May 11 said the world's 12 biggest companies "are on track to spend US$103 million a day for the rest of the decade". How they put COP26's 1.5°C limit on life support. Carbon bombs indeed.

Two things must happen if we are to keep the Earth from warming too much. One, we must dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions. Here we already know how miserably the world is doing. AFP's quote of UN chief Antonio Guterres on WMO's report says it best: "A dismal litany of humanity's failure to tackle climate disruption."

Two, developed countries — home to most greenhouse gas emitters — need to help climate-vulnerable countries adapt to climate change impacts. There is no doubt that wealthy countries have contributed the most to climate change. They must likewise commit to funding climate-vulnerable countries to adapt to climate change.

Rich countries agreed at the Copenhagen climate talks to contribute US$100 billion a year by 2020 towards this fund, but failed to keep the pledge. But even if they kept their promise, US$100 billion a year isn't enough. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates this to be US$2.4 trillion a year. Anything less is a climate catastrophe.

In six months' time it will be COP27 in Egypt. Will it be Glasgow all over again? It might be worse. There, 1.5°C Earth was on life support. In Egypt, our fear is that it might be brought in dead.

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