WORLD War 1 was supposed to be the last. But the powerful-take-all peace deal instead led to World War 2. Will World War 3 happen? Very likely, because the world this year is still one governed by big power geopolitics.
Analysts are saying World War 3 may begin in Taiwan. The signs are there, with the United States and China ratcheting up the rhetoric, but that isn't the only place. It could very well begin in Ukraine, Palestine, Kashmir or Syria. These and other places are tension-ridden, but tensions are symptoms, not the cause. And the cause can be reduced to three words: great power politics. Tame this, and there is a chance to keep World War 3 at bay.
Consider Ukraine and Taiwan. Start with Ukraine.
When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24 last year, analysts said President Vladimir Putin's goal was to restore the Russian empire. This may or may not be true, but the invasion is 383 days old because of great power politics by Russia and the United States.
Russia wants its border with Ukraine to be free of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's (Nato) presence, which means Kyiv can't be a member of the Western security apparatus. But can Moscow tell an independent country what it can and can't do? No. However, geopolitics is more complicated than such simplicity. Realpolitik may hold the answer. Former US president Richard Nixon may not be remembered fondly by many, but China and Russia of the 1970s do.
He didn't like communism, but this didn't prevent him from normalising relations with China or the Soviet Union. Nixon's detente did much to end hostilities in the world. President Joe Biden must copy that. Russia wants a secure border with Ukraine. The US and Nato must grant this. Ukraine wants its independence guaranteed. Russia must recognise this.
Taiwan, our second hotspot, is in a similar turmoil because of power politics. If The Economist is right, American "marines are training for a war with China, probably precipitated by an invasion of Taiwan". The rhetoric is growing feverish by the day.
China firing missiles towards Taiwan can't be discounted as it did when then US speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited the island last year. Some US lawmakers are pushing Biden to do exactly what he is doing in Ukraine: rush in all the weapons that Taiwan may need before an invasion by China takes place.
This is no realist politics. Like in Ukraine, diplomacy is the answer. Like Russia, China is a nuclear power. One misreading by either, and the world will face annihilation.
As American political scientist John Mearsheimer argues in an article in The Economist, the precipitation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is much the doing of the US. To him, there is no question Putin started the war and is responsible for how it is being waged. But the US's involvement in the conflict began in 2014, when the US helped topple a Russia-friendly regime there. Russia didn't watch from afar.
It captured Crimea and set in motion a civil war there. The rest, as they say, is history. Big power politics, as it is playing out in Ukraine and elsewhere, won't help end conflicts.
Diplomacy born out of realpolitik will.