Letters

Is cautious optimism the New Norm?

LETTERS: THERE was cautious optimism that Covid-19 and lockdowns would disappear in 2021.

These didn't happen. The emergence of the Delta variant, first detected in India in October 2020, threw a spanner in the works.

By the first half of 2021, it had spread to more than 130 countries, resulting in a record rise in daily infections and deaths.

India suffered a deadly second wave with more 400,000 daily cases at its peak in April and May.

In Malaysia, on May 21, daily cases hit 6,493, and for the first time on July 13, hit the five-digit figure of 11,079 cases.

On May 28, then prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin announced a nationwide lockdown on all sectors from June 1 to 14.

On June 28, the lockdown was extended indefinitely until daily cases fell below 4,000.

On June 15, Muhyiddin introduced the four-phase National Recovery Plan (NRP) to help the country emerge from the pandemic and its economic fallout.

When Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob took the helm, he continued with the NRP, thus maintaining the same policy and strategy with changes made in response to the dynamics of the situation.

By Oct 25, daily cases were down to 4,782, the lowest daily figure since June 22, paving the way for the preendemic phase.

Things got better from October onwards, as reflected in the lifting of the ban on interdistrict and interstate travels, a boon to domestic tourism, with 90 per cent of the adult population fully vaccinated, giving rise to another round of cautious optimism that the worst might just be over by end of the year.

Calls for a third booster jab, which was introduced in early October, were speeded up.

Just as all these were about to succeed, as reflected in daily cases dropping below 3,000, a new strain, Omicron, entered the picture in early December, dashing again the cautious optimism.

On the economic front, after a smaller gross domestic product (GDP) contraction in the first quarter — 0.5 per cent compared with 3.4 per cent in Q4 2020 — it reached its zenith in Q2 with a 16.1 per cent growth.

The lockdown saw Q3 growth contracting to 4.5 per cent.

The saving grace was GDP amounted to three per cent for the first nine months of 2021.

Despite headwinds throughout Q3, key economic indicators point to a strong recovery, especially as the country entered Q4 and into 2022.

With this momentum, Malaysia's GDP is on track to achieve a growth of between three and four per cent in 2021, and expand between 5.5 and 6.5 per cent in 2022.

Ismail Sabri revived Muhyiddin's proposed reforms under the memorandum of understanding on transformation and political stability, which was accepted by Pakatan Harapan and signed on Sept 13.

This heralded the dawn of a new era in strategic partnership, cooling the political temperature, while adding stability.

Perikatan Nasional governments under Muhyiddin and Ismail Sabri have a simple, tenuous majority.

This is a bane in Malaysian politics where it is no longer the opposition that can bring down the government, but the party with the most seats in the coalition government.

Jamari Mohtar

Editor of Let's Talk!, Kuala Lumpur


The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the New Straits Times

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