AS Thailand prepares to open its popular tourist destinations to foreign tourists over the next few months, it expects some three million visitors for the year.
The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) said the figure was its best case scenario and it comes as the tourism confidence index plunged in the second quarter to its lowest point.
The figures are a far cry from the 40 million visitors the country received in 2019.
The Bangkok Post said TCT also estimates about two million people in the sector have lost their jobs due to the pandemic.
The government has so chosen Phuket, Krabi, Phangnga, Surat Thani, Chiang Mai, Chon Buri, Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Buri Ram and Bangkok to reopen for tourism.
Phuket will be the first to reopen as it is set receive foreign tourists starting tomorrow (July 1).
TCT vice president Vichit Prakobgosol said that in addition to faster vaccination for the 10 pilot tourism areas, the key factors that affect the volume of tourists are the readiness of Bangkok, the aviation hub of Thailand, and whether the Chinese government will allow tourists to take overseas trips by October.
He said TCT had devised four projections for the tourism industry. The best case scenario sees the country welcoming three million tourists and generating 212 billion baht in tourism receipts, if the 10 provinces can reopen and Chinese travellers are allowed to take trips from October.
According to Vichit, if Beijing does not allow overseas travel, the total number decreases to two million with 152 billion baht in tourism revenue.
However, he said 1.4 million foreign arrivals contributing 107 billion baht is the most likely scenario.
He also believes China will not extend its travel restrictions for its citizens as it needs to test its reopening plan for the 2022 Winter Games in Beijing.
TCT also raised concerns over the delayed vaccine rollout in Bangkok and this may cause the whole country to miss the reopening target of mid-October.
For the worst case scenario, if Bangkok remains closed and Chinese tourists cannot take outbound trips, total foreign arrivals could further drop to only one million, generating 83 billion baht.
The Post said that TCT's recent tourism confidence index saw a massive drop to 11 from 36 in the first quarter, setting a new low. The previous low was 12, which was recorded during the lockdown in the second quarter of last year.
The index polled 725 tourism-related operators from May 15 to 30 and a reading below 100 indicates low confidence.
The poll also showed that almost three-quarters of operators have sufficient liquidity to maintain business for only six more months under current conditions without financial aid.
An almost equal number of operators want soft loans of up to 3 million baht to restart their business.
TCT president Chamnan Srisawat said unemployment for the sector peaked at 2 million, up from 1.45 million in the first quarter.
The government's goal to reopen by mid-October should allow some workers in sandbox areas to return to their job, he said.