KUALA LUMPUR: Air passenger traffic across all airports in Malaysia is expected to grow between five per cent and six per cent year-on-year (YoY) or 114.9 million and 116.0 million passengers next year, according to the Malaysian Aviation Commission (MAVCOM).
MAVCOM said the forecast would be driven by Visit Malaysia 2020 and a 3.2 per cent YoY increase in domestic seat capacity growth.
The growth projection in 2020 was made following the commission’s revision on 2019 passenger traffic forecast between 6.4 per cent and 7.0 per cent YoY, or 109.1 million and 109.7 million.
The commission, in its fifth edition of its bi-annual Industry Report: Waypoint published today, said tourist arrivals by air into Malaysia recorded at 8.8 per cent growth in the first-half of 2019 (1H19) with a total of 4.8 million passengers.
MAVCOM said the increase in tourist arrivals were mainly from Indonesia, China, and Thailand, which offset the decline in tourist arrivals from Singapore and Brunei.
It added collectively, these five countries constituted 78 per cent of the total tourist arrivals in 1H19.
Meanwhile, the average operating profit margin of Malaysian carriers in 1H19 fell to 0.3 per cent YoY on the back of rising costs.
The average cost per available seat kilometre (CASK) saw a 5.9 per cent YoY increase to 17.9 sen and revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) decreased 2.2 per cent to 15.9 sen, MAVCOM said.
MAVCOM also noted the RASK-CASK negative spread in 1H19 reflected the decreasing profitability of Malaysian carriers and a challenging operating environment in Malaysia.
“Stronger domestic passenger traffic growth relative to international passenger traffic growth could also influence aerodrome operators’ earnings in 2020 as passengers incur a lower passenger service charge (PSC) for domestic travel,” it said in a report.
However, MAVCOM said Malaysian carriers’ seat capacity are expected to grow 2.0 per cent YoY in 2020 compared with 4.3 per cent YoY in 2019.
Subsequently, average fares by the carriers are predicted to remain flat or rise slightly due to slower growth in capacity, thus enabling local carriers to improve their load factors.
MAVCOM executive chairman Dr. Nungsari Ahmad Radhi said there was a growing development of alternative airport hubs such as Johor Bahru, Kuching, and Kota Kinabalu in 2019, as carriers allocate more seats to these airports for a wider choice of domestic destinations.
“Greater allocation of seats for these airports supported the domestic-led growth in 2019 and is expected to persist in 2020, where routes within Sabah and Sarawak will experience the highest growth,” he said in a statement today.
Meanwhile, MAVCOM released a technical paper entitled: Managing Airport Demand: The Role of Airport Slots, discussing the role of slots in managing airport demand.
The paper also addressed a slot permission given to airlines to utilise the full range of airport infrastructure relating to their take-off or landing operations.
According to International Air Transport Association, the main terminal Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) is classified at Level 3 as the infrastructure is incapable of coping with demand most of the time.
It added nine other airports in the country also face congestion, handling more passengers than their terminals’ respective design capacities.
MAVCOM said it also considers slot-related measures when assessing exemption applications or mergers, given its authority over competition matters in aviation services.
Slot allocation for airports in Malaysia is carried out by the National Slot Coordination Malaysia.
“Slot allocation is expected to play a larger role in managing airport demand in Malaysia due to the growth of the industry and the increasing pressures on airport infrastructure.”
It said other solutions such as increasing operational efficiency and upgrading air traffic management systems should also be explored before resorting to airport infrastructure expansion.