KUALA LUMPUR: Signs of aviation recovery are emerging - especially in mainland China and the Asia-Pacific region, according to a global travel and data analytics expert.
This, according to the firm called Cirium, follows the deepest drop seen in global air traffic since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in April 2020.
Speaking on a Cirium-hosted webinar, Post Coronavirus Recovery for Aviation in China and the Asia-Pacific Region this week, Ascend by Cirium's head of consultancy for Asia, Joanna Lu said:
"The global market reached rock bottom in April 2020, and the only way now is up."
Lu said the air travel market in mainland China is estimated to be down by 58 per cent, compared to the first four months of last year.
"However, while the international market has been hit hard since February, there are signs of recovery in the domestic market," she added.
The Asia-Pacific markets that are most reliant on international traffic and inbound tourism suffered the most. Hong Kong was the hardest hit, with April traffic down by over 73 per cent, compared with the same period in 2019.
Taiwan (down 58.2 per cent) follows Hong Kong and Singapore (down 48.4 per cent) and Thailand (down 46.4 per cent) at third and fourth.
Ascend by Cirium's global schedule data indicates a potential recovery across most Asia-Pacific markets through July 2020.
Ascend by Cirium is the consultancy and advisory business part of Cirium.
Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers.
"Mainland China's domestic schedule suggests a recovery to marginally positive year-on-year growth by end July, all and other regions are showing recovery as travel restrictions begin to ease.
"Those with large domestic markets are expected to see capacity back to pre Covid-19 levels or even growth by July," said Lu.
Unlike previous economically-driven downturns, post-Covid-19 intra-region recovery will likely be driven by bilateral agreements.
For example, mainland China is planning to establish "travel bubbles" with South Korea and Singapore for essential business travel.
Other Asian Covid-19 bubbles now under discussion include Australia and New Zealand, Japan and Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand.
Meanwhile, Ascend by Cirium's global head of consultancy Rob Morris who joined Lu on the webinar, said that the recovery of airlines in mainland China and the Asia-Pacific region was also critical to the near-term delivery aspirations of original equipment manufacturing aircraft manufacturers.
"Almost one-third of deliveries expected through 2023 are scheduled for the region.
"More than 1,360 deliveries are scheduled for Asia-Pacific operators, representing 31 per cent of the total, compared to Europe at 29 per cent and North America at 22 per cent," said Morris.
Describing the pace as "picking up", he said the global parked aircraft fleet, which reached around 64 per cent in mid-April 2020, is now below 50 per cent as airlines return aircraft to service.
"We still expect to see several thousand aircraft remaining parked at the end of the year.
But the number will reduce as we see the recovery in Asia-Pacific, and also in North America and Europe, take shape," he added.