KUALA LUMPUR: The government's "Generation Endgame" (GEG) policy will see an increase in illicit trade as the 15–19 age group cohort accounts for 7.7 per cent of the tobacco use population.
According to Datametrics Research and Information Research Centre (DARE) study, the illicit trade was expected to increase by 61.7 per cent from 58.4 per cent as of March 2022.
This will result in the size of the illicit market rising to RM8.7 billion.
Managing director Pankaj Kumar said banning cigarette sales will not work to reduce smoking prevalence.
"This move will not only lead to a rise in the illegal cigarette market to RM8.7 billion, thus benefiting criminal syndicates.
"Malaysia does not have the same market dynamics as countries like New Zealand or Singapore, which has a lower smoking prevalence and incidence of illicit trade of less than 11 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively.
"However, in a country like Malaysia where our smoking prevalence is more than 20 per cent, and our tobacco black market stands close to 60 per cent, GEG is not a viable option," he said in a statement today.
A study carried out by its market research partner, The Green Zebra Sdn Bhd, entitled 'A Smoke-Free Malaysia' report, revealed that 83 per cent of Malaysians think the illegal cigarette trade will increase exponentially with the ban on the sale of cigarettes to those born after 2005.
In the same market survey, two-thirds of the respondents acknowledged that vaping has helped them either quit smoking entirely or reduce their cigarette consumption.
Pankaj added that the government needs to step up enforcement at these ports to ensure they act as pure transhipment hubs and not the point of entry for illicit trade.
"While in Budget 2021, the government has designated five key ports as transhipment points for the trading of tobacco products, it has not stopped smuggling activities.
"The government also needs to step-up controls and enforcement of contrabands at various landing points on the coastal lines of the nation.
"There need to be concerted efforts, not only from the customs but also the navy, by deploying our vast seagoing vessels to tackle illicit trade," he added.