KUALA LUMPUR: RAM Ratings expects banks' profitability to stay intact this year, but with limited upside.
In a note, it said Malaysian banks saw steep margin compression and increased operating expenses in 2023, which were partly balanced by stronger non-interest income and lighter provisioning charges.
The average pre-tax return on assets and return on equity of eight selected local banks were lower at 1.36 per cent and 13.6 per cent respectively (2022: 1.41 per cent and 14.0 per cent).
However, the absence of the one-off Cukai Makmur lifted profitability metrics higher compared to the year before.
Average net interest margin (NIM) of the eight banks narrowed by 28 basis points (bps) to 2.07 per cent– the lowest level seen in the last five years.
"Looking ahead, banks' profitability should stay intact in the coming year, but upside will be limited in light of prevailing uncertainties in the operating landscape," said Co-head of Financial Institution Ratings Wong Yin Ching.
While multiple overnight policy rate (OPR) hikes initially resulted in considerable margin expansion in 2022, RAM Ratings added that banks had to grapple with the higher cost of funding in the past year as deposits gradually repriced upwards.
"As we expect the OPR to be kept unchanged this year, NIMs are anticipated to stay steady, although modest compression is possible should deposit competition intensify," added Wong.
The firm added domestic loans, which grew by a fairly strong 5.3 per cent in 2023.
Lending momentum was tepid for much of the year but accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2023 (Q4 2023), led by businesses.
Early signs of a recovery in global trade and the robust job market are expected to support loan demand this year.
"However, as we remain watchful of challenges in the global macroeconomic environment, elevated cost pressures, and petrol subsidy retargeting, loan growth for 2024 is projected to ease somewhat.
"On the asset quality front, in view of lower reported provisioning expenses in 2023, the average credit cost ratio of the eight banks improved from 30 bps to 23 bps. A large portion of management overlays set aside during the Covid-19 pandemic remains on bank balance sheets."