KUALA LUMPUR: UOB Group Global economics & markets research expects the ringgit to strengthen to 4.60 against the US dollar in the first quarter of 2024 (1Q24).
As at noon today, the ringgit was trading at 4.712 against the US dollar.
UOB Group economics & markets research chief economist Julia Goh, senior foreign exchange strategist, Peter Chia and economist Loke Siew Ting said in their note today, the two-way volatility and choppy movements are likely to persist in the first quarter of 2024 given ongoing geopolitical and macro risks alongside market repricing on the timing of US interest rate cuts, following aggressive expectations on Fed policy easing.
"Despite volatility and bouts of strength for US dollar in the near term, we reiterate our view for US dollar weakness across 2024, backed by lower US interest rates. While China's economy remains a wild card, we still see US dollar and China yuan pulling back to 6.80 by the fourth quarter of 2024," the report said.
It said concurrently, various ASEAN foreign exchange including the ringgit should also recover in tandem.
It expects the ringgit to strengthen against the US dollar to 4.60 in 1Q24, 4.55 in the 2Q24, 4.50 in the 3Q24, and 4.45 in the 4Q24.