AS Hong Kong, the former British colony, waits to return to the fold of mainland China, many questions are still being asked by its residents, as well as the world at large, on the future of the island and its people.
Firstly, there is the direction and content of the shape of governance to come. Democracy seems to be the popular choice for the people. But, what form this will take will be determined not by them, but by the people in Beijing. From reports available, if the “ups and downs” of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong are any guide, what China wants is something that can fit in the Chinese mould. Deciding otherwise will not be tolerated, as China will not want to have a “Yugoslavia-type solution” in her backyard.
In the shorter term, China will want to play the game of going step by step with democracy until the rest of the country can tack along. China is doing just fine for now in the domestic and international scene. The country’s move to become a major player in the international financial and monetary sector has begun to reap dividends. Even the United States and the European Union are paying more attention to the economic news coming out of Beijing these days. These will surely make the Chinese not rock the boat of peace and prosperity too much.
But, there are also quarters around the world that are watching keenly the developments in Hong Kong. This is expected to rise if events on the island take a turn for the worst. But, Hong Kong is no ordinary backyard. It is not Taiwan. It is also not Macau. In fact, the island is an economic and financial centre to the world in so many ways. Many will want to see this continue as it is. Their wish is for China to avoid a contest of force in the progress towards democracy. In their minds, they want to believe that Hong Kong will be a testing ground for the best possibilities of China’s political transformation.
Our second point is that the best possible options for China will remain centred around two ideas: one, for the people of Hong Kong, and the other, for the Chinese government in Beijing.
For the people, they will be looking for something that will take into consideration Hong Kong’s special status and advanced development. This means they will be happy with the status quo. For the Chinese government, greater freedom for the people of the island must not come at the price of order and stability of the country. The aim is to preserve China’s unitary character through respect and tolerance of the present domestic and external equilibrium. The forces of change will be allowed to take shape through the normal course of action.
Looking from the perspective of the international community, such possibilities are not in sync with China’s present active posturing in different parts of the world, especially Southeast Asia, where the issues of overlapping maritime claims have raised tensions between Asean member countries and China. It has been suggested that a brief period of low-level anarchy between China and Asean countries is imminent.
In the middle of all these developments, Asean seems to be the biggest loser if things start to break loose on the island because of the tangle in relations between Hong Kong and China.
An alternative that can be considered for Asean to hold the ship of affairs with China on a steady keel is to satisfy three requirements: firstly, the people have to stick to the “big picture of harmonious and prosperous relations” with China, as evident from the cooperation in strategic partnership and free trade agreement; secondly, Asean is to strengthen cooperation with Hong Kong, as this is the way to influence the pace of economic development in China as a whole; and finally, Malaysia, as Asean’s current chairman, can take the lead in intensifying its bilateral relations with Hong Kong through its investments and pulling Asean’s interests to move forward together.
In the longer term of securing the region’s future, it is suggested that events in Hong Kong be taken more seriously by China, Asean and Malaysia. It is hoped that one day, Asean can claim credit in leading efforts to bring an Asian integration process into being.
The writer, a former diplomat and
Universiti Sains Malaysia associate professor, is now a lecturer in International Law and Organisation at UiTM