KUALA LUMPUR: A local research team has recommended that the Movement Control Order (MCO) imposed by the government to contain the Covid-19 pandemic be lifted in staggered phases.
The researchers said the staggered lifting was paramount to resume economic activities in the country after some businesses came to a shuddering halt due to the MCO, which started on March 18.
The team, led by Prof Dr Naomie Salim from the Faculty of Engineering of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, conducted a research titled “Covid-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lockdown on infection dynamics.”
Her team members from the same faculty are Dr Chan Weng Howe, Prof Dr Shuhaimi Mansor, Dr Nor Erne Nazira Bazin, Assoc Prof Dr Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi, Assoc Prof Dr Anazida Zainal, Dr Sharin Hazlin Huspi, Eric Khoo Jiun Hooi, Shaekh Mohammad Shithil, and a public health physician in epidemiology, Dr Safiya Amaran from the Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin.
Naomie said her team suggested that such implementation could be executed according to each location’s outbreak control level.
“It can be done by zones, based on Covid-19 health index, for instance, red zone (remain enhanced MCO), orange zone (continue MCO but increase alertness) and yellow zone (partial MCO with good practice of social distancing and hygiene),” she said.
Red zones are districts with more than 41 cases, while orange zones have 20-40 cases, yellow zones (one-19 cases), and green zones are those with no cases of Covid-19.
The team cautioned that the government cannot lift the MCO altogether as long as there were still new cases reported, as this may trigger another wave of infection.
They explained that the first phase of MCO, although effective, was still inadequate to halt the Covid-19 outbreak due to the lack of understanding and preparation of the citizen.
They added that the second phase of MCO with enhanced measures would further restrict movement, but this gradual enforcement could delay the break of the chain of infection.
Asked on their view should the government extend the MCO for the third time, her team believed that all precautionary measures must be taken to curb any contact from an infected person, especially those who were under home surveillance and self-quarantine.
Meanwhile, the research also predicted that the pandemic would peak on April 19, with the latest estimated peak could be end of May depending on the type of prediction model.
The team has utilised a number of models, including the curve fitting with probability density function and skewness effect modelling, SIR model and System Dynamic model.
“Compared to actual total infected data from March 18 to April 6, curve fitting with probability density function and skewness effect modeling is the most accurate that has 99.99 per cent of accuracy with an estimation of 5,637 positive cases.
She said the team extracted data from Worldometer, 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard from Johns Hopkins University Centre for Systems Science and Engineering, Ministry of Health Malaysia website, as well as from local news websites.
The team also believed that the MCO compliance level could be improved when Malaysians were empowered by obtaining adequate and timely information about the importance of MCO. – Bernama