KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia faces a 60 per cent probability of experiencing the La Niña phenomenon from October this year.
In face of this, a new flood forecast and warning programme has been designed by the Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) to provide residents living in flood prone basins of Kelantan, Pahang and Terengganu a 48 hour advance warning instead of previous six hours heads-up.
National Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre Senior Principal Assistant Director Dr Salwa Ramly said the increased warning period also goes towards mitigating some challenges posed by Covid-19. This includes reducing a likelihood of clusters forming during the flood season which usually takes place during the North East Monsoon, which strikes year end.
She said 126 sirens have been placed in flood hotspots in the three east-coast states. This is in addition to the 400 odd sirens placed in other parts the country.
"The system also allows us to predict floods seven days earlier compared to the Publicinfo flood system which we are phasing out. The Publicinfo system can only forecast floods upto 24 hours earlier.
"Publicinfo can predict floods at an accuracy rate of 90 per cent while the new system's modeling accuracy is lower rate of around 85 per cent when it comes to floods. We'd rather have hits than misses," said Salwa during a media briefing on the system at the DID headquarters here today.
Also present was the centre's director Mohd Razali Husain.
Salwa said the system was developed using real-time data which uses big data and crowd sourcing to seamlessly tap into data provided from rain stations as well as other sources such as satellite data and feeds from the Malaysian Metrological Department involving cloud cover, air moisture level and other information.
However, she said that the system could not predict floods linked to sea tides. Their modeling cannot predict floods nearby sea inlets due to high volume water flow from rivers upstream.
Salwa also said that new system cannot predict flash floods.
Besides sirens, sms alerts and warnings would be sent out by National Anti-Disaster Agency to those whose registered addresses correspond with affected areas, the department could also send out real time warnings via their Twitter and Facebook accounts.
She said they aimed to go live on their website with the programme before the start of the monsoon season.
Salwa explained that forecasts related to floods would not be made public, to prevent people from panicking.
She added that once the second phase of the programme which covers 38 other river basins nationwide is completed in 2025, the Publicinfo system would be phased out.
Malaysia experienced unprecedented floods in late 2014 and early 2015 involving 25 deaths with more than half a million people being evacuated.
Last year, the annual floods affected more than 5,000 people, forcing them into relief centres.