KUALA LUMPUR: Protracted bickering within the opposition and defection of a high-profile member from its fold has placed ruling party Barisan Nasional in a favourable spot, ahead of national polls expected to take place latest by August next year.
An analysis by BMI Research found that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s had further consolidated his position, and this augured well for a continued political and economic stability.
As such, BMI maintained its short-term political risk score at 75.6 out of 100 for Malaysia.
“The political situation in Malaysia is likely to remain broadly stable despite the run-up to the upcoming general election amid persistent bickering within the opposition.
“We maintain our view that political risks are likely to remain low in the run-up to Malaysia’s next election that must be held by August 2018,” BMI said in a statement.
It said former Selangor menteri besar Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib’s defection to Umno from the “centrist” PKR is cumulating into boon for Malaysia’s political landscape.
Apart from bolstering Najib’s position, BMI said Umno’s cordial welcome of Muhammad could be viewed as a “win” and opened doors for other former members to return to the party.
“Muhammad remains influential and could be positive for BN’s bid to strengthen its position in the opposition-held Selangor in the upcoming election.
“His return also suggests a degree of discontent within the opposition, which could work to BN’s benefit.
“We thus believe that political risks are likely to remain low and that the government will continue to seek to consolidate its position, boding well for the business environment.
“We note that the government’s position is likely to have been strengthened by Malaysia’s economic recovery, with growth having picked up significantly from 2016.”
The second major factor which contributed to BN’s strength lays with the persistent bickering within Pakatan Harapan over cooperation with Pas, which has raised a possibility of three-cornered fights in the next election.
“In contrast, Najib has strengthened his hold over BN as well as Umno, with BN continuing to project itself as a stable and reliable government that provides for the people.
“The disarray within the opposition bodes well for BN, which we expect to be the biggest beneficiary from the three-cornered fights.
“Weaknesses of the opposition have been mirrored by the gradual strengthening of Najib’s position within both BN and Umno.
“Najib has moved to shore up his party’s support within key voter bases such as the civil service and Felda settlers, while persistently reminding the public of BN’s economic track record.”
Expounding upon the opposition’s disunity, BMI said cooperation between Pas and Pakatan was unlikely to happen following the pact’s pro-tem chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s unflinching stand against the matter.
“Relations between Pakatan and Pas have been characterised by acrimony, following the dissolution of their partnership under the former (now-defunct Pakatan Rakyat coalition in 2015 over the (proposed) implementation of Islamic law in the country.”
BMI said the Pakatan pro-tem presidential council meeting late last month saw Dr Mahathir affirming the pact’s position against cooperating with Pas.
“The refusal thus raises the possibility of three-cornered fights, particularly in the all-important rural Malay heartland, that also forms the core of Umno’s support base.”
The existence of two Malay-based parties in Pakatan - Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) and Parti Amanah Negara (PAN) - would also lead to difficulties for the pact to set itself apart from Umno and Pas before the rural Malay electorate.
“Reports suggest that BN is making considerable inroads into Kelantan, one of Pas’ strongholds, with voters becoming more concerned with economic issues than religious ones. In addition, PPBM or PAN could split the opposition vote, to benefit Umno (BN).”