WE have recently seen many bewildering things happening on the United States’ foreign policy front.
US President Donald Trump, with no previous exposure to statecraft, has taken decisions that have left US’s friends and allies flabbergasted.
The list of the gaffes keeps getting longer by the day, and we ordinary mortals wonder if this will continue until the end of his presidency in 2020.
But, let us concentrate on the Asia-Pacific arena, which has been in the news recently.
Trump’s presidency took off on a rather bumpy note for several Asian countries when he announced the US’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe rushed to the US and tried — unsuccessfully — to convince Trump not to torpedo the TPP.
The decision upset America’s Asia-Pacific allies because the TPP embodied the US “pivot” to Asia with all its security and economic implications.
Of course, Trump’s decision was not unexpected because he had pledged in his election campaign to withdraw from the TPP which, as he kept harping, would have destroyed American jobs by providing TPP member countries free access to the US market.
Many economists and pundits dispute that, arguing that it is not the flood of imports but the use of hi-tech and automated production methods that wiped out US jobs.
With the TPP withdrawal, the US will lose its leadership in the Asia-Pacific.
Renowned economist Martin Wolf, speaking recently at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, described Trump’s TPP withdrawal as a “strategic error”.
Trump’s decision will embolden China to exploit the situation and resort to bullying the smaller and weaker nations in its neighbourhood.
The member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) are, understandably, unnerved by the US action and hope this will not weaken Washington’s presence in the region, particularly in the South China Sea where Beijing is building artificial islands to assert its claims to oil and gas-rich islands.
However, Trump’s cabinet members scrambled to do some damage control.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, for example, recently hosted Asean foreign ministers in Washington while Vice-President Mike Pence visited Indonesia to reassure that the US was committed to Southeast Asia.
The US has a military alliance with the Philippines and, despite having the controversial President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines knows that its interests are better served with the US than with China.
Nevertheless, Trump’s bonhomie with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the latter’s recent US visit may suggest that US had changed its stance on China’s moves in the South China Sea.
Xi’s calculation is that Trump would not hurt Chinese interests as long as the nuclear threat by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exists.
China’s influence on North Korea, though exaggerated, serves as a leverage against the US which hopes Beijing would help eventually denuclearise North Korea.
While Trump may have mellowed down his anti-Chinese rhetoric because it needs China’s help to curb North Korea’s military and nuclear activities, this does not mean that Washington will turn a blind eye to Chinese attempts to impose its sovereignty over the South China Sea islands.
China’s world-power ambitions were manifested in its recent Belt Road Forum, which attracted a large number of world leaders, particularly from the Asia-Pacific.
But, experts contend that the Belt Road Initiative is the “Chinese Trojan horse” to penetrate the otherwise impenetrable markets while also strengthening China’s security interests.
The Trump administration has also made some belated attempts to reassure Asean that America is committed to the region.
The recent US visit by Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, the first by an Asean leader since Trump’s inauguration, reinforced the intentions of both sides to foster close economic and security relations, particularly to counter China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.
Vietnam seems to be cut for the job of standing up against China’s belligerent posturing.
US calculations are that others such as Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia could prop up Vietnam’s ability to oppose China.
Then there is the question of Taiwan; it would hurt China’s long-term interests if it embarked on some military adventurism.
Democratic Taiwan has many friends in Washington who will not allow China to get its way with the island; the US is committed to helping Taiwan defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act which cannot be ignored by Trump even if he was lulled by Xi’s assurances to curb North Korea’s nuclear activities.
The existing security structures that US has built in the Asian-Pacific since World War 2 are a reminder of the region’s realities.
Japan and Korea, the Asean member states, with support from Australia and New Zealand, form the cooperation architecture with the US.
They could also be joined by India, which has participated in naval exercises with a number of these countries in the past.
If Trump disowned the US commitment to the region, he would discredit the US in the eyes of its Asian allies and harm its image with serious security and economic ramifications.
Manik Mehta is a New York-based journalist with extensive writing experience on foreign affairs, diplomacy, global economics and international trade. He can be reached via manikmehta@optonline.net