MANY in Europe are alarmed by the prospect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), or the Iran nuclear deal, being torpedoed by United States President Donald Trump.
The rescinding of the JCPoA by the US would leave the field open for Iran to continue with its nuclear programme and exacerbate the nuclear proliferation because Iran would no longer be required to comply with the conditions of the agreement.
It is not just Germany, but also France and Britain which have expressed “deep concern” over Trump’s so-called “new Iran strategy”. The European trio, who see themselves as advocates of non-proliferation, are now banding together against US’ attempts to back out from the JCPoA.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, joined by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Premier Theresa May, issued a joint statement on Friday evening stating that they had taken note of Trump’s decision not to certify the JCPoA and were worried over the possible repercussions of the decision.
JCPoA had been cobbled together after protracted discussions between the Security Council’s five permanent members, Germany, the European Union and Iran. There had been, what the Americans call, heavy behind-the-scene horse-trading with Iran. European allies, embedded in the post-war alliance with the US, have now realised, particularly after Trump’s arrival, that “we have to rely more on ourselves”, as Merkel recently put it.
For them, Trump’s erratic character has heightened uncertainties about the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) alliance; they also lament that Trump has been taking decisions without consulting the allies — a behaviour pattern, they say, that goes against the letter and spirit of the trans-Atlantic partnership.
Under JCPoA, Iran had agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98 per cent and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. For the next 15 years, Iran would only enrich uranium up to 3.67 per cent. Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time. Uranium-enrichment activities will be limited to a single facility using first-generation centrifuges for 10 years. Other facilities will be converted to avoid proliferation risks. To monitor and verify Iran’s compliance with the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would have regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities. The agreement provides that in return for verifiably abiding by its commitments, Iran will receive relief from the US, European Union, and United Nations Security Council nuclear-related economic sanctions.
Last Friday, Trump announced that the US would not make the certification under US domestic law; however, he stopped short of terminating the deal. Trump contended that Iran was not complying with the JCPoA’s conditions. Iran’s ballistic-missile programme and its terror network were also said to be the reasons for Trump’s refusal to certify the deal. Trump warned that if the US Congress failed to reach a “satisfactory solution” for a new law, he would terminate the agreement.
While Iran has already scoffed at Trump’s decision, the European trio has been arguing that the UN watchdog IAEA had verified and confirmed that Iran was complying with the conditions imposed under the JCPoA. The three European leaders have also taken the unusual step of appealing not just to Trump, but also to the US Congress, to consider the ramifications of such a decision on the security of the US and its allies before taking steps that could weaken the JCPoA, such as re-imposing sanctions that were lifted under the terms of the JCPoA.
To restrain Trump from taking any impulsive decisions that could lead to revoking the nuclear deal, the leaders of Germany, France and Britain have expressed their willingness to address Trump’s “concern over Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its regional activities” by closely coordinating with the US .The three Europeans have so far carefully avoided overt criticism of Trump’s decisions, while reiterating that they remain committed to the nuclear accord, calling for “its full implementation by all parties”.
Federica Mogherini, EU’s foreign policy chief, was quick to remind Trump that it was not up to one single country to terminate the deal. She pointed out that the JCPoA was not a bilateral agreement, and reinforced the view that the international community, and the EU with it, had clearly indicated that the “deal is, and will, continue to be in place”.
US law requires Trump to waive nuclear sanctions regularly — the so-called certification process — failing which he could bring back nuclear sanctions. In effect, that would terminate the deal — as far as the US is concerned — whether the other partners like it or not.
While this is the legal-technical provision, Trump will need to carefully weigh the pros and cons of his move which could certainly antagonise the Europeans and even alienate them from the US, not to mention that Iran would be emboldened to revive its nuclear-military activities.
MANIK MEHTA is a New York-based journalist with extensive writing experience on foreign affairs,
diplomacy, global economics and
international trade