EVER since Donald Trump was elected United States president, I have said that when he did something right, I would say so. That’s gotten me into trouble with some readers, but I’m going to do it again.
Last Friday, at the World Economic Forum, Trump gave a good speech that was forthright, intelligent and conciliatory, embracing the world rather than condemning it. The address was extremely well received at the World Economic Forum in Davos, by both American business leaders and even non-American attendees, who are overwhelmingly sceptical of Trump overall.
If the speech represents a new approach for the president, it will be a huge step forward. But, of course, the problem with Trump is that, by tomorrow morning, he might veer off in an entirely different direction.
The Trump presidency has been composed of three parts. Trump I is the circus — the tweets, the outlandish claims, the reality-television-like show. Trump II is the dark populism and the demagogic assaults on minorities, the press and the judiciary. Trump III is the conventional Republican president, following a fairly standard GOP agenda — tax cuts, deregulation and a hawkish foreign policy, guided by mainstream advisers like National Economic Council director Gary Cohn and Defence secretary Jim Mattis.
We could be entertained by the circus and we should be appalled by the demagogue, but we have to be encouraged by Trump the Republican. That’s not because I agree with all the ideas he has put forth in his agenda. I continue to think the tax cut is fiscally irresponsible, blowing a huge hole in the deficit that will starve public investment and effectively transfer government resources from the poor to the rich. On the other hand, his deregulatory push could be an important reform of an administrative state that has grown burdensome and overly complex. Trump’s policies and cheerleading rhetoric have undoubtedly boosted business confidence, which, as Obama’s former economic adviser, Larry Summers, has often noted, is the cheapest economic stimulus.
But, whatever you think of the policies, the larger point is that Trump, the conventional Republican, is working within the American system rather than trying to destroy it.
It’s possible that the weight of the presidency and the challenges of the job have pushed Trump towards a more sober and responsible path. But, it is also possible that Trump decided, for now, to side with his advisers. He often seems to be an unstable compound of Trumps I, II and III, in a single day tweeting out juvenile absurdities, lashing out at democratic institutions, but then, also promoting some sensible policy. Even in Davos, he couldn’t stop himself from attacking the news media and repeatedly making false or misleading claims.
The mood at the World Economic Forum is often an interesting indicator, because, while it is an elite gathering of business leaders, it involves many people from non-profits, social enterprises, politics and the media. The forum is genuinely global, drawing people from around the world, far more than any other conference I have attended.
The mood this year in Davos was upbeat. The world is experiencing synchronous global growth, something that is very rare. The American economy is humming, Europe is having a solid recovery and Japan has (utterly unexpectedly) had seven consecutive quarters of growth. China continues to power along, India is rising and Latin America has many success stories, as does Africa. Markets reflect this. They are almost all up at the same time — stocks, bonds, real estate, oil.
But, underneath this good cheer, there is disquiet. Partly, this is because people remember the optimistic mood just before the global recession hit. But, there is also unease that while global economies look reasonably stable, global politics are in turmoil. The old world order created and led by the US is eroding, and new great powers are entering the stage, most of them illiberal, mercantilist and narrow-minded. What will the world look like when China, Russia, Turkey and India have much more weight in global affairs?
In that context, the role, capacity and intentions of the US and its president become central. If the American president and his administration, in these times, seem uncommitted to the international system, that’s a larger risk than it might have been in the past. If the president seems hostile to the world, indifferent to democratic values and mercurial in temper, that’s especially dangerous today.
So, when Trump behaves better, as he did in Davos on Friday, everyone breathes a sigh of relief. I don’t seek to normalise Donald Trump. But, I do believe that, given the stakes, America and the world are better off for these moments — however fleeting — when he behaves more like a normal president.
Fareed Zakaria is an American journalist and author. He is the host of CNN’s ‘Fareed Zakaria GPS’ and writes a weekly column for ‘The Washington Post’.