WITH Barisan Nasional and the DAP-dominated PKR pitted against each other in the 14th General Election, questions have cropped up on how Pas, which is going solo this time, will fare.
There are divergent views on how the Islamic party, which has governed Kelantan since 1990 and had once ruled Kedah and Terengganu, will perform.
The first reason is that it is much harder these days to read the Malay mind. The advent of social media and the proliferation of WhatsApp and other messaging apps are major factors. Their content may easily sway voter opinion.
Also, for the first time in decades, Pas will strike out on its own following its recent exit from an opposition pact and the purge of progressive elements from the party.
The formation of the Pas splinter party Amanah in 2016, and its subsequent coalition with DAP and PKR, later led to the formation of a new opposition bloc, minus Pas.
This came at the same time that former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad reappeared on the political scene with a ‘Citizen’s Declaration’ alongside opposition leaders and former political enemies.
Pas’ first electoral test as a “lone ranger” was in the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections in June 2016 which saw it in a three-cornered fight with BN and Amanah in both the Malay-majority constituencies.
That had the obvious effect of splitting the Malay vote with those who regularly voted for the opposition facing two options, resulting in an overwhelming win for the BN candidate.
Pas succeeded in retaining its core Malay support at the expense of Amanah, which garnered a greater portion of the Chinese vote.
Most Chinese voters, however, swung back to BN, eschewing the Islamism propagated by opposition parties.
Based on the same formula, a three-cornered fight in some Malay areas could actually benefit BN if the Pas and PKR/Amanah votes split.
Pas had 13 parliamentary seats in the just-dissolved Dewan Rakyat. It had won 21 seats in 2013 but seven of the 21 went to Amanah following the split.
One disclaimer. Pas won the 21 seats when it was with the DAP/PKR/Pas coalition, meaning that even some Chinese voters supported Pas candidates the last time around.
The chances of Pas working again with the opposition pact are very slim and as far as BN is concerned, Pas is neither an ally nor a foe.
Analysts say Pas faces an uphill task to win over the fence-sitters. It might lose the previous votes from PKR and even from the young voters who might be lured by Amanah.
“I see Pas is at peace with itself. It’s not bound by coalition arrangements and agreements which limit it,” said KRA political risk analyst Amir Fareed Rahim.
“The party is trying very hard to broaden its appeal to the wider electorate with more young, women and even non-Muslim candidates,” he said. “However, it will be a real uphill battle for Pas to convince the electorate. It will put up a good fight for the Malay votes.
“It’s difficult to see them expanding beyond the core party faithful among the Malays, with very minimal traction among non-Malays.”
But others said Pas could emerge as a “kingmaker” in the aftermath of GE14, which Pas president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang alluded to last week, or become the Third Force in Malaysian politics.
“Pas is playing a new ballgame in this GE,” said Yang Razali Kassim, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
“They are acting as a Third Force, as Gagasan Sejahtera, neither with Pakatan, nor with Umno, on paper. This new strategy can cut both ways,” he said.
“It can raise Pas’ bargaining power in the event of an inconclusive outcome. But it can also marginalise Pas. The third force strategy actually means Pas is largely going back to its roots as a northeastern peninsula, rural party.”
Political analyst Rita Sim, who runs the Centre for Strategic Engagement (Cense), said Pas will put up strong fights in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Selangor since it still has core supporters.
This is unlike PKR, which does not have sufficient Malay support without Pas’ help. Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s Malay support is nowhere near Umno’s or Pas’, she said.
Furthermore, Hadi distrusts Lim Kit Siang and DAP more than Dr Mahathir. Pas has a bogeyman in DAP.
Perhaps Pas’ advantage is its greater devotion to Islam, a plus point for Muslim voters.
“A weak point for Pakatan Harapan is Islam,” said Umno information chief Tan Sri Annuar Musa. “Pas is likely to step up its offensive against Dr Mahathir and Pakatan for being a disservice to Islam.”
Even if Pas falters in its attempt for Putrajaya, it can still be a force to be reckoned with in states such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.
In Terengganu, for example, Pas has 15 seats against Barisan’s 17 in the 32-seat state assembly. Terengganu Pas election chief Ariffin Deraman said Umno is worried about losing the oil-rich state.
“For us, a three-cornered fight will benefit us, InsyaAllah,” he said.
The writer feels in a digital world, the winner does not always take all