NEW York and Washington, DC may be three hours apart geographically, but in global affairs, they are worlds apart.
With the wars in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere unabating, at the United Nations in New York, terms like ‘conflict prevention’ and ‘sustaining peace’ are back in vogue, with world leaders attending a major summit. Meanwhile in Washington, while the talks with North Korea took centre stage behind the scenes the drum roll of war against Iran is revving up.
The playbook of this potentially impending war is familiar. The groundwork in the media and political arena is being laid, to make war necessary, so that it ultimately becomes so. Future historians can look back to this month for the many early warning signs and the red herrings that set this stage. There are four obvious signs.
Leading the list is Israeli provocation. On April 9, Israel attacked Syrian military bases where Iranian security personnel were stationed. Seven Iranians died in the attack and tensions in the region soared. As many Middle East watchers noted, Israel was trying to provoke a retaliation from Iran, so that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could unleash his pent-up anger across Iranian skies.
As the dead soldiers returned to Tehran, Iranian officials said the strikes “will not remain without a response.” Israel, meanwhile, reiterated it won’t tolerate Iranian military bases next door. It launched another attack on April 30 killing Iranians, Syrians and Iraqi military personnel.
Memories of Israeli-Iranian cooperation against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war are all but erased from history as the two countries have provoked and retaliated against each other through proxies for three decades. But the war of words is escalating to war on the ground.
Second, the rising tensions in the region come in parallel with the attacks on and subsequent cancellation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has always resented. The JCPOA has prevented Iran from pursuing even the possibility of nuclear weapons, and was meant to open a pathway for broader diplomacy between the United States and Iran and to keep at least a cold peace between Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran.
While Iran has adhered to the terms of the JCPOA, the US has not. The financial sanctions and threats of billion dollar penalties against banks that dare to do business with Iranian companies or citizens were still in place before its cancellation.
Third, the ascent of John Bolton as National Security adviser means ‘regime change’ policy is firmly back on the table. For those needing a reminder, this was the policy of the George Bush administration after 9/11. It signals a range of covert and overt actions by the US or its proxies to bring down a regime that is deemed unfriendly to the US, and instal a friendly one.
Finally, there is nothing quite like preparing the groundswell for chaos than meddling with a country’s finances. Here too the timing and evidence is not coincidental. In February 2018, the Iranian rial lurched downward and as Iranians rung in their new year in late March, the spiral continued with a 20 per cent loss, causing many to question machinations behind the scenes.
While Iran’s own mismanagement of the economy is also to blame, the coalescing of external factors is notable. Iranians have relied on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) markets to obtain dollars and enable transactions and trade.
But with US and Saudi involvement, the UAE instigated a new five per cent value added tax, visa restrictions and tighter banking restrictions that mostly affect Iranians.
In Iran a public rush to sell the rial and invest in the ever more expensive dollar or gold, prompted the government to step in and announce a single official dollar rate. Whether this allays fears and stabilises the economy is yet to be seen. But uncertainty is in the air.
But as pressures loom, it is important to remember that Iranians – men and women, old and young, children and grand parents are trying to live normal lives of love and laughter, joy and heartache.
In 2002 when US think tanks and media joined the Bush administration’s drumbeat of war on Iraq, the public was sceptical, but the political establishment pushed to make war seem inevitable.
Now cheerleaders of that war have their eyes on Iran. A country that is significantly larger and is home to 80 million people, majority young, overwhelmingly educated, and mostly fed up with the aging theocracy that isolates them from the world and thwarts their aspirations.
But this population does not want missiles raining from the sky. It doesn’t want its economy ruined. It wants engagement with the world. It is also deeply patriotic. They may rail against the regime but they will likely rally as a nation if there is any foreign attack.
The world should also pause and anticipate what may unfold if chaos is invoked through economic collapse and a weakening of Iran’s borders: at a minimum refugees spilling into Europe and an open gateway from Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Persian Gulf and beyond.IPS
Sanam Naraghi Anderlini is co-Founder & executive director, International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN).