2019 will be a tranquil year for me. My soulmate Patricia will not badger me to migrate to the United States (US), United Kingdom or Brazil. These countries do not welcome mundane citizens like us.
The world, elsewhere, will continue to be turbulent and unpredictable. The “Big Four” leaders have long innings.
US president, Donald Trump, is expected to galvanise his political machineries this year, for re-election in 2020. He could romp home, considering the improvements in employment and growth in the US.
The “Big Four” club, nevertheless, may reign until 2024. Expect trade wars, mercurial decisions, political stalemates, refugeephobia and ego-battles. Hopefully, the leaders will not equate themselves with the state itself.
A country is always bigger than any leader or party. British Prime Minister Theresa May will rather endure a torturous path compared to Trump.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s robust support of refugees has imposed cultural and financial burdens on her countrymen. She has lost lustre.
French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, is embroiled in dousing “yellow-vest” fuel protest fires at home. Europe will be without a shining knight.
The war in Syria and Yemen may continue. The people of these nations survive with malnutrition and cholera. New sanctions will bite Iran.
India’s poster prime minister, Narendra Modi, will seek re-election. An unwarranted demonetisation, shoddily implemented Goods & Services Tax, pending promises on job-creation and terminating corruption have dented his image.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan will try to stump terrorism and financial bankruptcy.
Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi will maintain a subtle silence on the Rohingya crisis. If she is articulate, she may be nudged into oblivion again. Singapore will tantalise tourists with technology while Vietnam will focus on productivity.
Global growth will hover around three to four per cent. It has ranged around two to four per cent in the last decade, and this is not a good sign.
About 11 per cent of the world’s population sleeps hungry, living below the poverty line. About 844 million people do not have clean drinking water and 2.38 billion lack sanitation facilities.
World Bank, IMF, must galvanise global growth to seven per cent. Hire business stalwarts like Bill Gates, Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, if necessary.
US could lead global growth with around three to four per cent, bolstered by tax cuts, stimulus and high spends. Fear no downturn even though the stock markets are steady. Tariffs wars will slacken globalisation, not strangulate it.
European growth could stagnate at 1.5 per cent. Brexit may puncture the British economy to one per cent growth.
Hemmed in by tariff wars, China’s growth could decline to six per cent. China has reduced its poor from 750 million to 10 million in three decades. India’s economy could hesitate at about six per cent, since reforms will slacken.
Nigeria could be the new growth engine of Africa. With Lagos undergoing an infrastructural metamorphosis and the Dangote’s petroleum refinery to commence in 2020, the country could blossom.
Oil prices will range between US$55 and US$60 a barrel, constrained by American shale oil production and lower demand.
Do not expect overnight riches from the stock market. Gold will steady around US$42 per gramme.
The world must agonise about refugee-children, who suffer from malnutrition apart from missing schooling. Innocent children get victimised by the wargames that leaders play, to pander to their constituencies and aspirations.
Refugees from the Middle East, Africa and Myanmar seek food and opportunities. There are 65.6 million displaced persons globally. However, receiving countries are shutting their doors. Countries from where the refugees emanate, must rejuvenate their economies. Happy people never abandon their countries.
Digitisation is now a way of life. Deployed creatively, digitisation can enhance communications and efficiencies. However, in a war, artificial intelligence could annihilate armies. Around 200 million jobs are at risk, as robots make cars and even cakes.
Hopefully, youngsters will spend more time playing football or cricket than on social media.
Perhaps people will consume less antibiotics.
The #MeToo movement may fizzle out. It has alerted the groping fingers of men to be wary.
Roger Federer, Tiger Woods and Virat Kohli will continue to dazzle. Another Bond film may enthral us.
Forget your privacy, as telephone, Internet, cable and electricity wires merge. Every time you touch they keyboard of your phone or switch on your toaster, hidden systems record your searches and switches. Providers of various services can collate your profile and sell it.
The planet will get warmer. Plastic waste grows and smothers rivers and oceans. We will eventually pay the price of our neglect.
Perhaps 2019 will also reveal the plight of the 239 lives on doomed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which had disappeared from the radar since 2014. Their families wait for answers. We can never forget them.
The most uplifting moment of 2018 was, when thousands of multinational divers, soldiers, rescuers, doctors, volunteers, forged to save the Thai children and their coach, from a cave.
This selfless spirit could help us to find solutions to poverty, wars, HIV and cancer.
As a commoner, I hope for serene days, so Patricia and I can take long walks in a lonely park surrounded by mist or winter flowers. I hope it is not too much to hope.
Rajendra K. Aneja is the author of books entitled, “Rural Marketing across Countries” and “Business Express”. He was the managing director of Unilever Tanzania