EXACTLY a year ago, as Parliament was dissolved, the air changed instantly and it finally hit many that Johor would be the epicentre of a major earthquake that had the potential of burying Barisan Nasional. To move forward, some of the lessons are worthy of attention.
Johor was where Umno was founded in 1946 and where MCA and MIC had arguably their strongest state branches. In the 2008 political tsunami, the then opposition (DAP) won just a seat — the Bakri constituency in Johor. In the 2013 election, Pakatan Harapan won five seats. In 2018, PH won 18 parliamentary seats, out of a total 26.
PH won 98 seats in the peninsula. Selangor contributed the largest share; Johor’s almost three-fold increase was most unexpected, but it was one of the factors that contributed to BN’s demise nationally.
At noon on April 6 last year, former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced the dissolution of Parliament, after Parliament had passed the highly contentious fake news law and re-delineation of parliamentary seats in favour of BN.
The day before (April 5), Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) was banned and DAP announced it would not use its own symbol in the peninsula — this was a momentous decision which allowed all PH parties to use one symbol in the peninsula. Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad worked tirelessly to nudge all parties to agree at PH Presidential Council meetings, which happened almost weekly from February last year onwards.
PH was founded on Sept 22, 2015, after the collapse of Pakatan Rakyat (PKR) at the Pas muktamar on June 6, 2015. It was the first time in history that Pas and Umno suffered a split at the same time. Pas’ conservative wing wiped out the progressives in the party election, while then Umno president Najib sacked Johor-based Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Sabah’s Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal from the cabinet and pushed out Kedah men-teri besar Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir.
The coalition went through major and previously unthinkable game changers:
AFTER long-drawn out negotiations, the original parties (PKR, DAP and Amanah) realigned with forces aligned to Dr Mahathir;
ANNOUNCING Dr Mahathir as chairman of PH on July 14, 2017;
ANNOUNCING Dr Mahathir as prime ministerial candidate, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail as deputy prime minister candidate, and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as eight prime minister candidate on Jan 7, 2018;
AS a result of negotiations for the prime minister candidate deal, PH also managed to announce the completion of seat negotiations of parliamentary seats in the peninsula on Jan 7, 2018;
ON Jan 18, PH Johor became the first state to complete negotiation for state seats and paved the way for a very active engagement and preparation on the ground; and,
ON March 18, 2018, I was announced the candidate for Ayer Hitam. By taking the fight to one of BN’s strongest fortress, the aim was to galvanise the ground for all seats in Johor, with the hope of pushing up support for PH nationally.
On April 6, 2018, all top PH leaders gathered in Pasir Gudang for the final destination of a 100-day roadshow since Jan 27. At the Pasir Gudang rally, Dr Mahathir, Wan Azizah, Muhyiddin, Amanah president Mat Sabu, DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng were on stage waving the PKR flag as the agreed symbol for PH in front of thousands of mostly local Johor Malays. How to prove that they were mostly locals? It took us almost an hour and half to leave the scene after the event. No bus. All local cars and motorcycles.
While the opposition was the most prepared ever, Najib and BN still thought they could win with a two-thirds majority with its strategy that painted PH as a DAP-led coalition to keep Malay voters for Umno and Pas’ three-cornered fight to split the votes.
BN banked on the power of incumbents and also its supposedly strong grassroots machinery and traditional elite allies in the state and in the semi-rural constituencies to help contain any fallout.
On April 7, 2018, Tunku Mahkota Johor fired the first salvo and openly called for the voters not to change the ship captain. Malaysians found that tens of thousands took to Facebook to openly defy TMJ. The limitation of traditional symbols was clearly shown.
As I predicted long before, the 2018 election was not an election for PH. It was an election to reject Najib and BN. On the west coast of the peninsula, more than 15 per cent of Malay voters swung away from Umno to PH and on the east coast, they swung to Pas. In Johor, as Pas had very little influence, the swing away from Umno translated into massive gains for PH.
Two major factors that eluded most political analysts.
First, while Umno, MCA and MIC controlled the local elite networks in the small towns in Johor, the younger generation don’t stay in their kampung. They work in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. It is the returns of these economic voters who did not have to rely on local Umno or MCA village heads for small favours that changed the landscape altogether. The same phenomena happened to Malays, Chinese and Indians. In many ways, we are different in cultural backgrounds but the economic conditions of all ethnic groups are quite similar. The PH government will have to deal with the economic conditions of all these swing economic voters to stay in power. They have no loyalty to BN nor PH.
Second, the traditional elite groups in small towns in Johor and other semi-urban areas in west coast in peninsula may still weigh influence and may still be card carrying members of BN today, but because BN’s local structure ossified over the years, the new PH government may be able to build a new set of local structure through local leaders a generation younger. But again, economic development in these areas matter a lot if such new generation leadership were to be found and groomed. Some forms of reverse migration to these areas would be needed.
A year since the election, Johor remains the most important battleground between PH and BN. Whoever wins Johor will win federal power.
Liew Chin Tong is DAP Johor chairman and Pakatan Harapan Johor deputy chairman