State elections in Gods Own County, or Kerala, are usually predictable affair, with most voters steadfast on who they will vote for. Their choices are confined to the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) or the Communist parties-dominated Left Democratic Front (LDF).
These two political behemoths have dominated the political scene in the state, known for its backwaters for decades, and is now joined by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), hoping to upset the existing balance of power.
A well-known electoral tradition in the state with the highest literate rate at 96.2 per cent is that its voters have always had an anti-incumbency approach, as a check and balance. The state government has changed hands between UDF and LDF alternatively, and no state government was re-elected in Kerala, except in 1977 when UDF beat the odds to retain it consecutively.
However, the anti-incumbency tradition, as well as the UDF-LDF alternation, maybe be consigned to the political heap if LDF emulates UDF's feat by returning to power.
"What has made these elections more unpredictable is LDF's strong comeback in the local body polls in December 2020, where it won a majority of seats at all levels," said The Hindustan Times.
A drawback LDF may face is a fallout from the Sabarimala Temple issue, having backed the Supreme Court's judgment in allowing women of all age groups to enter the Hindu temple. Both the Congress-led UDF and BJP opposed the decision.
LDF's image was also tarnished by alleged corruption scandals and other undermining factors.
To overcome this, LDF is hoping the increased popularity of its incumbent chief minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, could propel the coalition to a consecutive term. This, it hopes would be aided by the momentum gained in the 2020 Kerala local election, where it outdid all other political outfits.
UDF, meanwhile, is hoping its Lok Sabha (Parliament) election outing in 2019, where it secured 19 out of 20 seats in Kerala, could also be translated into state seats in the assembly election. However. its poor 2020 local election performance is likely to diminish such a prospect. The Congress-led coalition has also been undermined by infighting, lack of fresh faces and the exit of the influential Kerala Congress (Mani) faction.
The BJP -led NDA, meanwhile, is hoping to disrupt the carefully laid plans of LDF and UDF, as well as existing electoral traditions. It is hoping to exploit disgruntled Hindu voters, upset over the handling of the Sabarimala issue and cash in on the 2020 Kerala local election, where it did better than expected. BJP has been contesting in the last few Kerala elections, but to no avail. It finally made a breakthrough under the NDA banner, when it won a sole seat in the 2016 polls.
"However, as per initial opinion polls, LDF is projected to break the trend and emerge victorious in the election," reported thequint.com.
A poll of polls by CrowdWisdom360 projects LDF winning 75, UDF 63 and NDA two seats.
Various other polls in the run-up to the state election have also projected LDF to retain power.
"When the 2021 Kerala state election results are declared on May 2, one of these two political certainties will be shattered. For the first time in four decades, an incumbent will very likely retain power in the state," reported the thewire.in.
The Malayala Manorama feels that LDF's fate of retaining the state government would rest on the outcome of 28 state seats with new candidates, which phased out incumbents following the imposition of a two-term limit. Out of the picture are eight state ministers and assembly speaker.
"According to political observers, who will rule Kerala can be easily defined based on the verdict of these 28 constituencies. If the new candidates in the sitting constituencies are unable to retain more than 18 seats, the result will be a gap of 20 seats between the fronts alone," the Malayalee language daily reported.
A coalition forming the next Kerala government needs a simple majority of 71 seats. A total of 957 candidates from three coalitions comprising 36 parties and independents are contesting 160 seats in the unicameral state assembly.
Come May 2, when the counting of votes takes place, whether an incumbent retains power or on anti-incumbent convention prevailing, voters are likely to make their choices known.
The writer is NST news editor