WILL Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito continue ruling the country, or will their prospects for another term be dashed?
The East Asian nation will be going to the polls on Sunday that will see all 465 seats in the House of Representatives (Diet) being contested, of which 289 are elected from single-seat districts, and 176 through proportional representation.
Though Japan's opposition parties in the past were fractured and disunited, the centre-left opposition hopes to mount a credible challenge against the 66-year-old LDP. This follows the merger of the country's largest opposition party — the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDPJ) — with the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
The LDP/Komeito was defeated for the first time in their history in 2009 by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). It was the worst loss a ruling party had sustained in modern Japanese history and the first political power transfer in the post-war era.
The opposition parties are hoping to cash in on several issues plaguing the LDP/Komeito.
They include many leadership turnovers since the 2017 elections. It is now led by former foreign minister Fumio Kishida, taking over from Yoshihide Suga on Oct 4, who in turn took over from Shinzo Abe who stepped down after a nine-year stint.
A fifth coronavirus infection wave also saw Suga and the LDP/Komeito government's popularity sink to a record-low 31.8 per cent in August.
The lethargic handling of the world's third-largest economy during the pandemic, despite positive spurts and continued holding of the Tokyo Olympics, also did not endear the LDP/Komeito to the people.
The opposition parties are hopeful in emulating DPJ's giant-killing effort through a swing from disgruntled voters.
The CDPJ, SDP, Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and Reiwa Shinsengumi's adoption of a common policy platform involving constitutionalism, measures to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, reducing economic disparities, transitioning to a decarbonised society, gender equality and government transparency, are also hopeful in defeating LDP/Komeito.
However, a positive note for LDP/Komeito is the rise in approval rating for Kishida's cabinet to 55.7 per cent on Oct 4.
Meanwhile, a survey by the Asahi Shimbun found that 38 per cent of those polled intended to vote for LDP, down from 41 per cent in an earlier survey this month.
It also found that seven per cent of respondents would vote for Komeito, up from five per cent in an earlier survey. The survey showed that CDPJ's position remained unchanged from the 13 per cent it recorded earlier.
A Kyodo News survey published on Oct 20 showed that LDP/Komeito is on course to retain its majority in the Diet.
It said the LDP was set to win at least 233 of the 465 seats, but was unsure whether it could retain its 276 seats held before the dissolution of the Diet on Oct 14.
It added that the LDP was also ahead in proportional representation, under which 176 seats would be contested.
"Nearly 30 per cent were still undecided on who to vote for in their single-member districts, meaning the situation could change considerably by the time the race reaches the home stretch," the news agency said.
Meanwhile, it is said that the CDPJ is leading in about 50 single-member districts and competing fiercely in another 40 or so due to consolidation of candidates with JCP and other opposition groups.
"But it remains unclear whether the CDPJ can add to the 110 seats it held previously, given its lacklustre support in proportional representation.
"The CDPJ is the most popular choice among survey respondents unaffiliated with any political group — 20.5 per cent of whom said they will vote for the party under proportional representation.
"Of the swing voters, 14.7 per cent backed the LDP, while 38.9 per cent said they had yet to decide," Kyodo News said.
It stated that the JCP had a chance of adding to its 12 seats, but was unlikely to make significant gains.
On the other hand, Komeito, which held a 29 seat tally pre-election, is expected to make a solid showing thanks to its support base — the lay Buddhist organisation Soka Gakkai.
A simple majority is 233, whereas a comfortable majority of 244 seats will enable the government of the day a sufficient number of seats to pass bills at all the Diet's 17 standing committees.
The writer is NST news editor