THE National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), did enough to retain the populous Uttar Pradesh state in the recent Indian state election.
Led by Hindu "sanyasi" Yogi Adityanath, it lost 57 seats, retaining 273 seats in the 403-strong Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly, compared with the 2017 polls, when the saffron party won 325 seats.
Though it dropped seats, the Hindu nationalist coalition saw its support among voters increase by 1.62 per cent via swing votes.
A significant achievement by NDA-BJP was in overcoming the long-standing anti-incumbency sentiment in Uttar Pradesh by winning consecutive terms.
Anti-incumbency sentiment among Uttar Pradesh voters in the past has never seen a ruling party retain the state in the last three and a half decades, the last being the Indian National Congress (INC) in 1985.
The polls also saw the revival of the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP), which came a distant second with a 10.24 per cent support swing.
The socialist party became the beneficiary of 155 seats, up from the 64 seats it garnered in the 2017 polls.
SP benefited from the seats lost by NDA-BJP, as well as the INC-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP).
For the INC-UPA, the state polls were led by a Gandhi scion — Priyanka Gandhi Vadra — in the hope that it could be led to a revival of the grand old party in its former traditional stronghold.
The legislative polls saw the INC-UPA seats dwindle to a mere two seats.
The outcome spells a likely demise of the INC, which saw the 137-year-old party holding sway in the Hindi belt state between 1951 and 1967 and at one time commanded 388 seats in the assembly.
The last time it returned to power in Uttar Pradesh was in the 1985 state election.
The Mayawati-led BSP, which held sway in the 1990s and early 2000s and ruled the state following the 2007 polls, were reduced to a mere single seat.
The election saw a 60.8 per cent voter turnout from 152 million people eligible to cast their votes in the month-long seven-phase polls between Feb 10 and March 10.
A post-poll survey revealed that NDA-BJP received the backing of more than half of the Hindu voters, while SP was backed by more than two-thirds of Muslim electors in the election.
The findings of the CSDS-Lokniti survey showed that NDA-BJP saw a marginal increase in support among Muslim voters compared with the 2017 Assembly elections.
The BJP-led coalition, saw eight per cent of Muslim voters backing it, an increase of three percentage points compared with the 2017 polls.
The survey showed that BJP was favoured by 54 per cent of the Hindu voters, compared with 47 per cent in 2017.
The study also pointed out that SP received the support of 26 per cent of Hindu voters, up from 18 per cent previously.
The BSP was supported by 14 per cent Hindu voters, while INC-UPA was backed by two per cent Hindu voters.
The Indian Express explained that the NDA-BJP win in UP was due to several factors.
This includes:
DESPITE criticism, the government was able to project its crackdown on the mafia and the extra-judicial killings as a sign of
better law and order;
WELFARE schemes were a game-changer during the Covid-19 pandemic;
ITS unabashed Hindutva plank worked with the electorate;
DOOR-TO-DOOR outreach (campaign) even during a Covid-19 lockdown; and,
THE waning popularity of the INC and BSP in Uttar Pradesh.
Apart from Uttar Pradesh, NDA-BJP also retained power in three other states from five that went to polls. It retained Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand, while Punjab was captured by Delhi-based Aam Admi Party.
"What does this mean for 2024?
"This results necessarily give a shot in the arm for the BJP before the next general election.
"As the prime minister (Narendra Modi) himself indicated, winning UP was a necessity for the BJP. Without any solid challenge in the Hindi belt in sight, the prospects of a unified opposition are dire," said Gilles Verniers, assistant professor at Ashoka University and senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research.
The polls in the politically significant UP is seen as a barometer of the subcontinent's political and electoral sentiment.
The state polls coincided with the midway point of the NDA-BJP ruling federal government and Modi's second term.
The state polls are seen as a bellwether before the next Indian general elections need to be called by May 2024.
The writer is NST news editor