As 2023 draws to a close, both sides in the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts signalled they expect continued fighting through much of the new year when dozens of countries, including the United States, go to the polls.
About two billion people in at least 50 countries will hold elections in 2024, including in India, Russia, Britain, the European Union and across Africa, Asia and the Americas.
Some are more unpredictable than others — few expect Vladimir Putin not to win another six years in office in Russia's presidential vote in March.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's fate is seen as tied to the war in Gaza. Many expect him to be ousted as soon as it ends.
It remains unclear whether Ukraine will hold its presidential vote in March. But the election that matters most for the world is November's US presidential vote, and whether Donald Trump returns to office.
The difficulties of predicting who will win, as well as what a more unrestrained, anti-establishment Trump might do in power, in part help explain the dynamics in multiple conflicts across the world.
It is a dynamic that says much about the state of international power, with increasingly assertive rivals to a perceived declining but still powerful US, whose own internal politics look more and more unbridgeable.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's leaning on Taiwan and military pressure against the Philippines see Moscow and Beijing willing to use methods that until recently would have felt almost unthinkable against Washington's allies.
Israel's war in Gaza has shown that US influence can be limited. The Netanyahu government arguably believes it can act as it can in Gaza without losing the broad support of the US.
Rising attacks on Red Sea shipping are just one sign of the regional spillover of that war. This week saw the US attack Iranian-backed fighters in Iraq, following more than 100 attacks against US forces there and in Syria since the middle of October.
Experts warn that ongoing civil conflict in Sudan and Myanmar could also escalate. Events in the Middle East raise the proposition that the early months of 2024 could see further escalation.
Within Ukraine and Eastern Europe, there is no shortage of complaints that the US and its European allies could have done more to arm Kyiv in 2023, and that it may now be too late to achieve breakthroughs in 2024.
They are likely to intensify given Republican congressional opposition to further US support and the very real prospect that a Trump administration might cut off Kyiv entirely and force it to sue for peace.
In his first term, Trump was outspoken in criticising China, flirting with more open support for Taiwan that has been continued by the Biden administration.
Who runs the government in Taiwan, which China claims as its own, will be determined in a Jan 13 presidential vote. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) looks likely to beat the opposition Kuomintang that favours friendlier relations with Beijing.
The victory would combine with ongoing Chinese pressure on the Philippines over its military presence on disputed islands in the South China Sea.
European parliamentary elections in June will be closely watched for signs of further rises in support for far-right parties, particularly after November's election in the Netherlands saw long-running Prime Minister Mark Rutte lose his majority.
Further far-right victories would be seen as positive for Putin, particularly when Slovakia dropped support for Ukraine after nationalist and populist Robert Fico won elections in September.
In Britain, where Labour leader Keir Starmer is likely to win elections at some point next year, a new government may hope to win over nearby allies by following Canada and Germany in committing more forces to Eastern Europe.
Overall, however, worries over a potential US pullback are likely to increase the clout and strategic importance of rearming major European governments, particularly those in Warsaw and Berlin.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win India's April-May elections — but a reluctance to look weak following a Houthi missile strike on an Indian tanker helped prompt New Delhi to send warships to the Red Sea.
More broadly, elections in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia are seen potentially as part of a growing trend towards authoritarianism across Asia and the world.
Each year of the 2020s has seen a major shock so far — 2024 will determine whether that trend continues.
* The writer is a Reuters columnist