KUALA LUMPUR: August's trade data provides continued optimism for Malaysia's trade-led economic rebound in 2022, Moody's Analytics said.
The firm said besides that, a few other factors stacked up favourably for the Malaysian economy.
First, the nationwide lockdown measures eased in most states, allowing otherwise constrained production to catch up with increased demand.
Brent crude price soaring to US$79 per barrel, the highest since October 2018, also provided an important lift to commodity exports.
"The rally in oil prices comes as global supply was hit by Covid-19 movement restrictions as well as production curbs by Opec+. Moreover, the reopening of economies following increased vaccination rates further lifted demand beyond the current supply," Moody's Analytics said in a note today.
Malaysia's trade performance picked up in August, supported by strong external demand for semiconductor chips as well as rising oil prices.
Exports grew 4.5 per cent over the month and by a notable 18.4 per cent in yearly terms, a step-up in momentum from the five per cent increase in July.
Moody's Analytics said China in particular, was facing a power supply crunch which would benefit Malaysia temporarily as a net exporter of oil.
"High oil prices will likely continue into next year and lend support to Malaysia's net trade position, especially as demand ramps up into the winter months for the Northern Hemisphere," it added.
Moody's Analytics said Malaysia's agricultural exports posted a respectable 15.4 per cent yearly increase, supported by high commodity prices.
"Prices of palm oil soared by more than 60 per cent over the year, which more than offset a dip in export volume. Imports of intermediate and capital goods were up in yearly terms, in part due to a low base effect a year ago.
"Consumption goods, however, were down as households reined in spending because of the relatively weak labour market outlook," it added.