TO put together a wish list of scenarios, one must have a good sense of what will be in store for the future. It is possible to want a peaceful world, to see an end to violence everywhere, to have hopes for happiness and to realise the good in others.
Several foreign service officers from different countries as far as Mexico in the West and Fiji in the East did just this. In a programme on “Futures Thinking and Scenario Planning” organised by the Malaysian Foreign Affairs Ministry recently, officers were asked to come up with the appropriate scenarios for the Southeast Asian region in the year 2025 in the areas of politics, economics, climate change and public health. For the exercise, they were divided into four working groups and were told to apply the principles of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) in their work.
The participants gave their utmost and had fun doing the scenarios. The four scenarios that resulted revealed a deep understanding of the dynamics of the region, the interplay of internal forces and external influences and the respective wishes of the various governments of the region. The scenarios as presented below are representative of the attitudes and thoughts of the people and governments involved.
Group 1 focused on the conflict in the South China Sea. As the main drivers, they listed the various positions maintained by the state actors in the region. These included, among others, the role of the external powers, the United States and China on one side and the regional actors on the other. While the former countries are trying to make a comeback into the region, the latter countries are forced to take sides one way or the other, either with US or China.
The unfolding scenario revealed a model of a new balance of power emerging in the region by 2025. As the political game continued, the group felt China would succeed in building a new empire in the East and eventually use the South China Sea as a pawn in realising its quest for regional supremacy by striking back at the other external power, the US.
Group 2 started with the impending competition at the economic level between US and China. The two countries as, observed by the group, were trying to impose for the region their respective visions of new regional economic hubs driven by the US pushing for the success of its Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and China, its Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area. The group asserted that the competition between the two actors would result in an all-out war of currencies between the dollar and the yuan.
After an intense discussion within the group, it was expressed that an economic meltdown would occur in the region leading to a crisis of confidence in the yuan and the consequent decline of China’s economy, with the spillover affecting the region and beyond.
Group 3 decided to go for the issue of climate change with a focus on the rising level of water in the world’s oceans. It was the group’s belief that the problem was unstoppable due to the lack of awareness and the ignorance of countries. The group called for a joint effort by all countries to act without delay upon all the agreements and undertakings, and their respective protocols related to climate change.
In a scenario driven by such factors as rising above world ignorance, getting everyone involved and integrating efforts worldwide, the group put forward a message of hope: all for one and one for all, calling for joint action to achieve a common good for the world.
Group 4 embarked on getting the world to raise its awareness of possible outbreaks of another world epidemic disease out of Africa. This time, it was about the spread of the Ebola virus to various places around the world. After the HIV/Aids epidemic, the Ebola scare could take on a dangerous proportion sooner than expected if no efforts at the World Health Organisation (WHO) level is initiated quickly. Delay to take immediate action would result in another blow psychologically to Africans and Africa as a whole.
The scenario as adopted would move the focus out of Africa to concentrate international efforts at confronting the new disease from the health capital of the world, the WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland.