GEORGE TOWN: MALAYSIA'S Covid-19 infections have yet to peak, with daily cases expected to increase until mid-January.
Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) virologist Dr Kumitaa Theva Das said Malaysia could hit 25,000 Covid-19 cases per week, especially since the BA.2.86 variant of interest (VOI) had been discovered only recently in two states.
She said based on how rapidly Covid-19 was spreading globally, Malaysia would most likely see the same trend.
She said as an average of two per cent of Covid-19 cases become severe, this meant there would be about 500 hospitalisations per week.
"With some states exceeding 80 per cent of hospital bed use (like Penang), it is an early indicator that our healthcare system may be overwhelmed if we are not extra careful.
"This trend will likely continue until at least mid-January. We should be extra cautious in the next few weeks.
"I am sure none of us want to go back to lockdowns. To prevent that, regardless of the mandates introduced, we can mask up at all times and do all that we can do to best protect ourselves," she told the New Straits Times.
Dr Kumitaa, who is USM's Infectomics Cluster, Advanced Medical and Dental Institute senior lecturer, said Malaysia had been reporting an increase in cases since September, with the 14-day trend showing a 30 to 500 per cent increase in cases in each state and almost a doubling of cases from last week to almost 13,000 this week.
To put the numbers into perspective, she said in the same period, World Health Organisation data showed that Brunei saw an 80 per cent increase in Covid-19 cases and Singapore saw a six per cent rise.
She said Malaysia has detected more than 20 Covid-19 variants, from Omicron to older variants like Beta and Delta.
She said all four variants of interest — XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, EG.5 and BA.2.86 — have been detected in Malaysia, and as they were under the Omicron family, the symptoms would be similar.
"No new variant has been detected locally or abroad.
"While some believe that shutting borders may reduce cases, it may not make a difference as the risk of getting infected within or outside the country is similar due to the spread of similar variants globally.
"While the virus has not mutated to become deadlier, the number of cases is bound to increase when there is larger movement, such as during the festive season, when more people are travelling or visiting crowded areas, like during the year end."
She said three factors contributed to recent infections — year-end travel and festivities, the spread of the influenza virus and waning Covid-19 immunity.
"Firstly, with more gatherings, there will be a higher risk of infection. Secondly, the spread of the influenza virus means some people may not even realise they have Covid-19, mistakenly thinking they have the flu.
"Thirdly, it has been more than a year since most people received their last vaccine dose.
"Their Covid-19 immunity will have waned, increasing chances of infection. These factors ensure the perfect opportunity for Covid-19 to make a comeback."
To manage the situation, Dr Kumitaa suggested that the authorities implement measures like hybrid work or schooling.
She said mask mandates might not be necessary, but masking was an easy way to control the spread of infection.
"Face masks are cheap and easy to don in crowded places, places with poor ventilation, when travelling or if people are in the high-risk category (elderly, immunocompromised or have co-morbidities).
"People should conduct Covid-19 tests before gatherings and use hand sanitisers regularly. Measures that worked previously will still work well today."