CAMERON HIGHLANDS: It has been a grueling campaign period for candidates vying for the Cameron Highlands parliamentary seat.
Today, the showdown at polling centres will determine which of the four contestants has what it takes to take up the mantle as a federal lawmaker.
But to be clear, the fight for Cameron Highland, which only holds two state constituencies — Tanah Rata and Jelai — has always been a straight fight between Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional. And it is not exactly between their respective candidates M. Manogaran and Ramli Mohd Nor — it is between the bigwigs of PH and BN, which can be seen from the inconsistency of the issues raised separately by each leader.
DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang trained his guns at former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's campaign work; Pahang BN chairman Datuk Seri Wan Rosdy Wan Ismail's message to Chinese voters which essentially revolved around scratching each other's backs; alleged abuse of government assets for campaigning; alleged “kidnapping” of tok batins; and Kuantan MP Fuziah Salleh's claim that it was a contest between federal and state governments.
Perhaps, that is also why PH chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad needed to tie up loose ends on the final day of campaigning.
The local issues, such as temporary occupancy licenses, Orang Asli rights and obscure parking zones were left to Manogaran and Ramli.
Manogaran was active, journeying into the traffic jams towards Tanah Rata, and braving the heat, gravel road and rivers trying to meet the Orang Asli community in Jelai.
Ramli, is quite the opposite. It’s not that the former senior police officer was absent from campaigning; it’s just that Ramli had flown under the media's radar. He met voters discreetly and without much fanfare. There were few gatherings open for coverage. Some BN leaders admitted that they preferred it that way.
What about the independent candidates? Former lecturer Sallehudin Ab Talib has been really quiet, the 61-year-old having not had enough funds to build his machinery.
The other, Wong Seng Yee, is a successful horticulturist and well-known among local farmers. And, thanks to a particular focus by the Chinese vernacular media and familiarity with local farming issues, Wong may give PH a run for its money when it comes to a segment of Chinese voters.
But how will each of them fare today?
In the 14th general election, BN won most of the votes in Jelai, which has 12 polling districts, where five main Orang Asli settlements can be found — Pos Sinderut, Pos Lenjang, Pos Titum, Pos Betau and Pos Lanai. Nine were taken by BN, while the remainder went to Pas.
Observers say PH needs at least 25 per cent from these polling districts to pose a challenge to BN. Hence, why most campaign events were held in Jelai. Turnout for PH events was moderate, but never encouraging enough to boost the coalition’s confidence.
However, party insiders from each side of the divide believe that there could be a split in the Orang Asli votes.
“Some of the Orang Asli believe PH is genuine in bringing changes to their lives, while others are content with their current way of life. The latter are used to supporting BN,” a source said.
Tanah Rata, where most of the non-Malays reside, is considered to be PH's voter bank, with 17 polling districts. Five of them — Ringlet, Lembah Bertam, Kuala Terla, Kampung Raja and Teringkap — could be regarded as PH strongholds.
Expected voter turnout could also hamper earlier forecasts by interested parties.
While the Election Commission is targeting the turnout to be 70 per cent for Cameron Highlands, previous by-elections since GE14 saw considerably low numbers — Sungai Kandis recorded 49.4 per cent, Seri Setia saw 44 per cent, Balakong stood at 43 per cent and Port Dickson rose to only 58.3 per cent.
Here, one of PH’s concerns is the turnout by Chinese voters who live outside the district, since most would prefer to return only during the Lunar New Year celebration just over a week from today.
Putting aside the possibil
ity of an independent candidate’s victory, the final tally of today's polling will be a measure of PH and BN’s respective political clout.
A win for PH will showcase its prowess as a ruling party, the people's continuous rejection of BN and the possibility of transcending politics along the racial lines.
A victory for BN would reflect the strength of its voter bank, the success of its nexus with Pas, and the rate of PH's adaptability in venturing into its rival’s stronghold.