AGENERATIONAL change is in the offing in Congress, India’s “grand old party”.
Rahul Gandhi, 47, who is taking over from his mother Sonia, 70, and most likely to get elected unopposed, will become its president by Dec 5. That will end a period of uncertainty.
Rahul was widely perceived as reluctant to don the cap. Yet, two power centres have emerged with mother-son differences hurting the decision-making. His mother’s illness, of which the family is unwilling to talk about, seems to have forced the decision.
Sonia will pass the baton after helming the party for more than 19 years, the longest anyone has in its 132-year history.
That will end the “foreigner” tag hurled at the Italian-born, since she headed the party after India’s independence, although some English and Irish sympathisers of freedom movement had been presidents.
With that comes the other tag, of Nehru-Gandhi “dynasty”, although numerous family-led parties dominate India’s political spectrum. Rahul will be the sixth member of the clan to take the post.
Motilal Nehru was the president twice in 1919 and 1928. Succeeding him in 1929 was son Jawaharlal, India’s first prime minister. Daughter Indira, who headed the party intermittently for six years, and Rajiv, her son and Rahul’s father, doubled as prime ministers and Congress chiefs.
Indira (in 1984) and Rajiv (in 1991) were assassinated, becoming the tragic part of the party and country’s contemporary past. These “sacrifices” have been forgotten, judging from the mother-son’s performances in elections. The party must earn its place each time an election is held.
Despite that — and because of that — a paradox persists that the Congress needs a Nehru-Gandhi to lead. It is not short of talent and experience, but its members mustn’t covet the top post.
Going by past record, electing any other leader could split and further weaken the Congress. With just 45 lawmakers in a Parliament of 544 and most states lost, it is facing an existential crisis.
Few expect Rahul to work wonders. He has taken long — 13 years — as a lawmaker and party official. He has no governing experience although the Congress ruled for a decade (2004-2014). Even sympathisers say he is “still evolving”.
Political opponents and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pillory him daily, obstructing his speeches in Parliament. Sections of media and the social media have nicknamed him “pappu”, the dumb one.
But, a sudden, surprising change has come about in the last few months. Rahul addressed dons and students at American universities at Berkeley and Princeton. He made his mark, enough to roil ministers in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s team to counter every word he spoke.
His Russia and China visits are planned. But, the new responsibility, actually a designation change, may prevent his foreign sojourn.
He is “programmed” better now, yielding positive media hype. His campaign in Gujarat elections has been spirited, spontaneous and biting and saying the right things mostly. But, few believe Modi can be defeated in his political backyard. He may taste his first electoral debacle in Gujarat on becoming the Congress chief.
He is reaching out, like Sonia successfully did. Descending the high pedestal, she won allies that helped the Congress back to power in 2004.
Although heading the largest opposition party, Rahul may be considered too junior to head an opposition phalanx against Modi in the parliamentary polls due in 2019.
The Congress lost most state level elections except since 2014 and mismanaged government formation in two, for which Rahul is blamed. But, Rahul can show his mettle as a leader and an alliance-maker in elections in key states next year.
Getting elected as party chief is the least of his problems. He has multiple demons to fight within and outside the party that has suffered serious erosion. His test will be negotiating the political minefields that await him.
He will have to resurrect a demoralised organisation that is nearly extinct in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
By any reckoning, it is a tall order for Rahul. BJP has millions of silent and dedicated foot soldiers from organisations functioning under the umbrella of the Hindu right-wing, Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS).
But, openings are available to Rahul. The Modi government’s currency demonetisation and an omnibus tax, and its failure to arrest the economic slide have angered the urban middle classes. He can work to counter fear among the Muslims and the socially oppressed Hindus, which was spread by violent vigilantes Modi has failed to control.
Ideological confusion has always troubled the Congress. Not having thorough political schooling, Rahul is buffeted by in-house adherents of the right, the left and the centre. Soft-Hindutva advocates want him to change the party’s pro-minority image. Speaking for the poor, Rahul is seen as anti-corporate. He needs them as they play a vital role in electoral politics.
Coincidentally, the party decided to elevate him just a day after his grandmother Indira’s birth centenary (1917-2017).
Rahul tweeted: “I remember you Dadi, with so much love and happiness. You are my mentor and guide. You give me strength.”
India’s “iron lady” was the most astute politician of her time, still compared and contrasted with 34 years after her death. The Congressmen would wish Rahul to imbibe his grandmother to forge the right combination of populism and pragmatism.
And, the public at large would wish him well because a democracy needs a strong opposition.
The writer, NST's New Delhi
correspondent, is the president of the Commonwealth Journalists Association 2016-2018 and a
consultant with ‘Power Politics’ monthly magazine