With a new federal government installed in Putrajaya and the immediate threat to its longevity having dissipated after the admission by none other than Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad that a no-confidence vote now will not prosper, political attention is likely to shift elsewhere.
No place more so, perhaps, than Sarawak where talk of a state election this year has not abated, despite the present distraction caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Being part of the Perikatan Nasional-led national government that the state’s ruling Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) coalition had been instrumental in establishing has given a boost to the state government’s quest for a fresh mandate.
Had Pakatan Harapan (PH) remained in power nationally, Sarawak would have been in a most unaccustomed position of a sitting state government doing political battle with an opposition that is part of the federal government.
A battle royale was already shaping up before the change in government in Putrajaya put paid to it. In its wake, acrimony has bubbled up to the surface within the Sarawak PH.
Sarawak PKR is split three ways: former chairman Baru Bian decided to go independent, Julau MP Larry Sng is the new chairman and two other MPs are part of the group behind former PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali which has joined PPBM.
Although Sarawak DAP may be energised by the way the federal government changed midstream amid widespread sympathy for it among its urban voter base, the rural Dayak and urban Malay vote banks may now be impossible for the state opposition parties to crack.
The state is likely to revert back to status-quo politics: mostly urban Malay politicians backed by rural Dayak ones calling the political shots with the bulk of the opposition coming from urban Chinese politicians. Unlike at federal level, a two-coalition system with either coalition having a fighting chance to win power may be stillborn.
Two political imponderables will now likely also take a back seat. The rather shrill clamour for state rights somewhat incongruently led by a state government which woke up to find itself in opposition to its federal counterpart in May of 2018 will dial down a decibel or two.
A string of other parties championing state rights is unlikely to make much headway politically. The other huge imponderable remains Dayak political restiveness. It will fester for so long as there is no clear path within the dominant ruling party, Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (a merger of once Dayak- based and Malay/Melanau-based parties), for alternation of state leadership between the two major Bumiputra groups in the state.
Since the unified party came into being in 1973, it has produced three succeeding chief ministers who, together with the incumbent that year, had all been from the Melanau/Malay group.
The party to watch here will be Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) which started life as the United People’s Party, a breakaway from GPS component party, Sarawak United People’s Party. PSB has in recent months been announcing a slew of upcoming election candidates and promises to field a credible multi-ethnic slate in a majority of the state assembly’s 82 seats.
Instead of being seen earlier as a foil engineered with some PBB connivance against Dayak political ambitions, the fact that PSB has also announced Malay candidates to go head to head with PBB’s non-Dayak incumbents has drawn some parallels to Parti Bersatu Sabah, a rookie party which won in an election upset to form Sabah’s government in 1985.
It remains to be seen how much traction the new Sarawak party will gain on the hustings, of course. PBB has grown in its nearly 50 years to become Sarawak’s dominant political force and will remain a formidable election-winning machine come the 12th state election. But after the shock humbling of Umno in the 13th general elections, it is taking few things for granted.
Since Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Abang Openg took over unexpectedly as chief minister following the demise of Tan Sri Adenan Satem in January 2
017, it was as if he was out to prove himself worthy of his own mandate from Day 1. We should know soon if he is.
The writer views developments in the nation, region and wider world from his vantage point in Kuching, Sarawak
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the New Straits Times