SOON, the second quarter data for this year will be announced. From a slight contraction of 0.5 per cent in the first quarter, the economy is expected to display a convincing rebound — a sort of V-shaped recovery, if you will.
Besides the low base effect, the possible V-shaped recovery is, to a great extent, due to the massive RM530 billion in stimulus packages which have been launched so far.
There are eight Covid-19 economic stimulus packages, with four (Prihatin, PrihatinPKS+, Penjana, KitaPrihatin) amounting to RM305 billion announced last year and another four (Permai, Pemerkasa, Pemerkasa+, Pemulih) totalling RM225 billion launched this year.
How all eight stimulus packages are being framed and operationalised seems to be working, especially in their ability to grease the wheels of the economy at a time when most economic and social activities have been halted to break the chain of infection.
All else being equal, the second half of this year will see the process of economic recovery taking place.
By October, herd immunity is expected to be achieved, and based on the National Recovery Plan (NRP), almost all economic and social activities will gradually open up.
This will mark the beginning of a more sustainable economic recovery.
For the entire year, economic growth of 4.5 per cent to five per cent is not something way off the mark, with next year being the beginning of a process in revitalising and reforming the economy.
In other words, it will be the final two "Rs" of the 6R approach and the end of Phase Four of the NRP.
Herd immunity will also necessitate a change of strategy in the health sector which will end any form of movement control order and move the nation towards stricter standard operating procedures and the Find-Test-Trace-Isolate-Support approach.
Screenings will be made easier, cheaper, and more accessible with methods such as testing saliva or breath.
Even though the virus is unlikely to disappear, it would be manageable, like any other flu viruses which still linger among us now.
The new normal will be retained, and the coronavirus will become endemic. A yearly booster jab might be necessary as well at that time.
The greater challenge will be in revitalising and reforming the economy.
If I might add another "R", it would be Resetting the economy.
After more than a year of lockdown, the reopening of the economy does not mean that it would automatically "recover" on its own.
From an economic standpoint, it is not about going back to the pre-pandemic era.
New economic challenges lie ahead, which require a new national vision and mission, and in turn necessitate whole-of-sector and whole-of-industry reforms.
These entail new innovative projects to be launched, and eventually supported, by a new mindset and a new economic thinking framework.
Even without the pandemic, the world was already undergoing a series of significant changes due to the technological revolution, climate change, and a broken economic system.
The soon-to-be-announced 12th Malaysia Plan and other long-term policies and blueprints which have been announced so far, like the National Unity Blueprint 2021-2030 and the National Fourth Industrial Revolution Policy, seem to be a good start.
Instead of looking at issues and problems piecemeal, it is time for the government to look at issues holistically and comprehensively, with a big picture and long-term perspective in mind.
More crucially, it needs to focus on the real issues at hand and solve them from both a "zoom-in" and "zoom-out" approach.
All these require political stability, so it is essential for the political impasse to be resolved once and for all.
Any delay in addressing it would mean delaying the fight against Covid-19 and subsequently, the nation's economic recovery.
The rakyat's lives and livelihoods are now at stake.
The writer is associate professor of Economics, head of Political and Economic Risk Research Unit, Universiti Utara Malaysia