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Liberal or Conservative - who will prevail in South Korea

The Republic of Korea (ROK) has gone through an evolution of five republics and 18 presidents after it was formed following the demarcation along the 38th parallel.

After Syngman Rhee became the first president in 1948 following the establishment of the first republic, the ROK or South Korea has seen its head of state elected directly by the people or by indirect means or via the national assembly or similarly empowered bodies, 20 times. This however excludes the March 1960 election whose results were invalidated after the April Revolution.

Only from 1987 did a direct popular vote electoral mechanism be utilised via a single round plurality voting system and saw Roh Tae Woo from the Democratic Justice Party elected as President.

In the era of a direct presidential election, the presidential candidates and their ideological leaning - liberal or conservative policies, as well as direction the nation heads, are closely scrutinised.

This is more so when the head of state only heads the state for one term.

South Korean presidents only serve a single five-year term and cannot seek reelection directly or indirectly.

The ideology of ROK presidents has see-sawed over the years - conservative presidents have ruled on 14 occasions, compared to liberals who became head of state on four occasions.

The fourth-largest Asian economy goes to polls on March 8 to elect its new Head of State.

In this year's presidential fray, 14 candidates have entered the electoral ring, but Lee Jae-Myung from the ruling liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and Yoon Suk-Yeol of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) have emerged as frontrunners.

The East Asia Forum said South Korea's current political landscape is unprecedented in its modern history.

"The progressives have control over all levels of government, including the Blue House, National Assembly and a majority of local governments and councils.

"This is the first time since the founding of the Republic of Korea, the progressives have seized all institutional political power", said the Australian National University based international policy forum.

It adds given the power distributions of South Korean politics, it is likely that Lee's victory will stimulate voters' high demands for various reforms through strong executive power combined with an overwhelming parliamentary majority.

Yoon's election it said would result in a split government, requiring delicate skills of political compromise for any legislation of which he is devoid.

"But neither result will allow stable or predictable political processes. Dynamism will be a keyword for South Korean politics in 2022," it added.

Lee is a 57-year-old human rights lawyer and former governor of the country's largest Gyeonggi province. A rare rags-to-riches story, his childhood poverty forced him to work in a factory that saw his left arm shattered by a machine.

Yoon meanwhile spent 27 years as a state prosecutor, playing a key role in prosecuting and throwing conservative presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-Hye behind bars.

The Council on Foreign Relations said it observed that the election did not provide an optimistic or reassuring view of the road ahead.

"Korea's liberal democracy is on the line, as democratic backsliding has now become an undeniable reality.

"Korean society is deeply divided along the lines of ideology, class, generation, and gender, and even the courts and civil society are highly politicised.

"The course and aftermath of this election are critical for the future of Korea's distressed democracy – will democracy be rescued from further decay, or will Korea retreat into a new form of populist authoritarianism?" said the nonprofit think tank specialising in US foreign policy and international affairs.

The majority of 39 opinion polls conducted between Feb 14 and 26 also gave the nod to Yoon and only three were in favour of Lee.

The Economist Intelligence (EIU) expects Yoon to carry the presidential election, amid public dissatisfaction with the ruling Minjoo Party's performance in government.

It adds that Yoon has a policy agenda that favours closer defence cooperation with the US, economic deregulation, a reduction of the tax burden for businesses, an increase in private-sector housing supply and more targeted fiscal support for industries hit by the pandemic.

However, EIU said Lee Jae-Myung could still take office if substantial progress is made on economic normalisation and there is an increase in household income before the election.

Whoever occupies the Blue House will be faced with several pressing issues. This includes runaway property prices; widening income inequality; economy; Covid-19 battle; corruption; abuse of power as well as inter-Korean relations with its northern Korean neighbour, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, among others.

The writer is NST news editor

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