IT is a Test that pits the world’s second ranked team against the one at the top and could well be a prelude of what we can expect at next year’s World Cup, with the teams most likely to meet in a quarter-final.
Ireland had to wait 11 years and 29 matches to finally overcome the All Blacks 40-29 and that too was in Chicago in 2016, not at home in Dublin.
There was a golden chance for Ireland in 2013 to score that first historic win but after leading 19-0 the game ended in heartbreak for the Irish who lost 24-22 when Ryan Crotty scored a try from an almost length-of-the-field move which was converted by Aaron Cruden. It was also in that game that Ireland’s flyhalf Jonny Sexton missed a relatively easy penalty kick that could have stretched his team’s lead to 25-17 with about three minutes to go, a scoreline that would have made it almost impossible for the All Blacks to try and win due to the time factor.
The All Blacks also won the game in Dublin 21-9 two weeks after the Chicago defeat but Ireland under the coaching of Kiwi Joe Schmidt since mid-2013 has shown phenomenal progress, being Six Nations champions three times in five years, including a Grand Slam this year. Schmidt’s first success in this championship in 2014 was the first for Ireland after five years. Before becoming Ireland’s coach, Schmidt also brought several titles to Leinster.
How significant the swing has been under Schmidt is best seen against the 60-0 drubbing Ireland suffered against the All Blacks in Hamilton in the last of the three-Test June series in 2012.
Since then Ireland has become a tough competitor against the All Blacks and come early Sunday (kickoff 3am Malaysian time) Schmidt is hoping his boys will finally score a first home win over the world champions.
Ireland though will be without openside flanker Sean O’Brien who broke an arm a week ago against Argentina; scrumhalf Conor Murray who hasn’t played any rugby since suffering a neck injury while touring Australia last June and centre Robbie Henshaw, who pulled a hamstring also in last week’s game. Murray looks to have recovered but everyone on the Irish side agrees that it would be too risky for him to be involved too early against such formidable opponents because of the long lay-off.
The All Blacks too will be without first-choice prop, the injured Joe Moody, and also Sonny Bill Williams, who injured his shoulder late in the first half against England last Saturday, which means Crotty will start in partnership with Jack Goodhue and Anton Lienert-Brown named on the bench.
Italy hosts a beleaguered Wallabies, Wales takes on Tonga, Scotland hosts the Springboks, England meets Japan for only the second time in their history and France is at home to Argentina.
Despite all the talk about respecting Japan, England coach Eddie Jones, also the Japan coach at World Cup 2015, has changed 11 from the 15 that started in the loss to the All Blacks last weekend but still should not expect too many problems on Saturday.
Japan shocked the rugby world by upsetting the Springboks in their first pool game at RWC 2015 and went on to win two more of the three pool games but still failed to advance to the knockout stage for the first time. But since that memorable tournament, the team has struggled to keep up with the tier one nations, recently losing heavily at home to a second-string All Blacks and the Wallabies.
Following their 9-6 defeat to Wales last week, Rugby Australia has again declared its faith in coach Michael Cheika, who the Australian press keeps on asking to be replaced because of the poor run of results, especially with RWC 2019 only about 10 months away. The union’s justification for now is that the defeat to the Welsh was such a close one and that the result could have easily gone the other way.
The team has now lost 10 of the last 13 matches to give it its worst win ratio in a year since 1974.
Against Italy, the Wallabies have won all of their 17 matches and while Cheika has named several changes, he has retained the core of his first-choice players including backs Israel Folau, Samu Kerevi, Bernard Foley and backrowers Michael Hooper and David Pocock and Izack Rodda, Adam Coleman and Scott Sio among the other forwards. Recalled veteran Adam Ashley-Cooper will play on one wing at the age of 34 and his first for his country in more than two years while there will be debuts for scrumhalf Jack Gordon and 18-year-old Jordan Petaia on the other wing.
But while they are expected to win against Italy, the last big test for the Wallabies this year will be the game against England next week and it would be interesting if Rugby Australia will continue to back Cheika as strongly as ever should the team lose badly.
For the clash at Murrayfield, where Scotland has lost only one of nine Tests since the start of last year, the Springboks have named lock RG Snyman to make only his fourth start while scrumhalf Embrose Papier gets the opportunity to make his first start after Faf de Klerk was released back to his English club.